Africa Economics Update South Africa public debt ratio is about to peak South Africa’s government debt-to-GDP ratio should peak this year, and we think the government will use the Medium-Term Budget Statement (MTBPS) later this month to reaffirm its fiscal discipline... 1st October 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What to make of Colombia’s turn to the IMF While Colombia isn’t facing the balance of payments strains that an IMF program is designed to tackle, an agreement with the Fund – as the government seems to be aiming for – could make austerity... 29th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Tight EM credit spreads mask lingering fiscal risks Measures of EM fiscal risk premia are very low, which partly reflects genuine policy improvements in some high-risk economies. But a few countries such as Mozambique and Tunisia still face the risk of... 29th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Sep. 26) Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa should remain resilient despite high energy prices and tighter global financial conditions. We’re optimistic relative to the consensus on growth in much of the region... 28th September 2026 · 0 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Africa resilient but pockets of vulnerability remain Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa should remain resilient despite high energy prices and tighter global financial conditions. We’re positive relative to the consensus on growth in much of the region... 25th September 2026 · 19 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Diverging interest rate cycles Emerging Europe has weathered the energy shock well so far and we expect regional GDP growth to strengthen in 2027. We remain upbeat on Poland and Czechia, but more cautious than the consensus on... 15th September 2026 · 21 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (September 2026) EM growth appears to have softened at the start of Q3, but we still think it will accelerate in the coming quarters. As things stand, it doesn’t look like EM central banks will respond to the renewed... 15th September 2026 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Counting the fiscal cost to the Gulf from the Iran war The disruption to energy flows from the Iran war will cause government budget balances to improve in Oman and the UAE (high prices have more than offset the impact on export volumes). But balances... 15th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA current account deteriorates, Senegal’s debt problem Q2 data this week showed the energy shock is putting South Africa’s current account position under strain, and with oil prices back above $100pb, we expect that external pressure to persist in the... 11th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly US-Iran strikes, bond sales, Xi in Cairo There are growing signs that the US blockade is squeezing Iran’s economy, but US and Iranian strikes this week highlight the challenge of securing a resolution to the conflict. In the meantime, the... 3rd September 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia: risk of currency, sovereign debt crises growing Tunisia’s fragile external position has deteriorated further since the onset of the Iran war and the dinar appears increasingly overvalued. Officials have tightened access to foreign currency in a bid... 2nd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Is Brazil facing a corporate debt crisis? A growing number of Brazilian companies are seeking to restructure their debts, and the backdrop of slowing growth and high interest rates will probably cause a further rise in corporate defaults... 20th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (August 2026) Recently released data support our view that emerging markets will – the Gulf economies aside – ride out the energy shock pretty well. At the same time, inflation pressures look contained and are... 20th August 2026 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Private credit & AI debt fears miss the bigger picture While private credit and debt-financing of AI investment dominate the headlines about vulnerabilities surrounding corporate debt, the big picture is that business finances are in a healthy state... 13th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Why are Brazil’s government borrowing costs so high? Media reports point to renewed scrutiny in Brazil over whether the central bank’s widely watched economic survey is pushing up public sector borrowing costs. But the key issue is that Brazil’s real... 11th August 2026 · 3 mins read
