US Economic Outlook AI investment boom to power economy We are increasingly confident that the surge in AI-related investment this year marks the start of a multi-year capex boom. Even allowing for ongoing labour market softness that will weigh on... 18th December 2025 · 16 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Soft growth to keep Bank on pause in 2026 The labour market has bounced back from the US tariff shock, but uncertainty over CUSMA and lower immigration will hold back GDP growth, which we expect to average 1.2% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027. Lower... 18th December 2025 · 13 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Oct. 2025) Retail sales were unchanged in October, although this was mostly down to lower motor vehicle sales as Biden-era EV rebates were phased out. While household consumption growth will have been weaker in... 16th December 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economic Outlook Growth to stay soft as deflation persists Fiscal support and a ramp-up in AI investment will prevent a sharp slowdown in China’s economy, but we expect growth to remain weak in 2026. Deflation and overcapacity will persist and China’s... 15th December 2025 · 17 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi’s non-oil economy faces growing headwinds in 2026 The Saudi economy has been boosted by the unwinding of oil output cuts this year and this will continue over the coming quarters, but a step up in fiscal consolidation efforts means that overall GDP... 10th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA set to reverse course on rate cuts in 2026 The RBA is poised to join the rather exclusive club of advanced economy central banks that tightens policy in 2026. With growth accelerating when there’s little to no spare capacity and the labour... 10th December 2025 · 20 mins read
US Rapid Response US Income & Spending (Sep 2025) The delayed September PCE data showed that monthly core price growth was only marginally above the target-consistent rate, with the annual core inflation rate edging back down to 2.8%. Real... 5th December 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Sentiment (Dec 2025) Consumer sentiment ends this year a little stronger thanks to the government reopening and the stock-market rally continuing. This should help keep fourth-quarter consumer spending resilient despite... 5th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone growth will remain weak The small upward revision to the euro-zone's third-quarter GDP growth, from +0.2% to +0.3% q/q, does not change our view that there has been no meaningful increase in momentum in the second half of... 5th December 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Upside risks in the spotlight ahead of RBA meeting The modest pickup in Australia's Q3 GDP belies the fact that domestic demand rose at its fastest pace in over two years. With fiscal policy set to remain loose and the private sector springing back... 5th December 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly Household Spending Indicator (Oct. 25) The surge in household spending in October confirms our view that the RBA won’t cut rates any further. If anything, the risk is that the Bank will feel compelled to tighten policy before long. 4th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook BoJ will bring rates close to neutral by 2027 The economy will continue to grow at a healthy pace, which should ensure that the labour market remains very tight. While energy subsidies and falling crude oil prices will weigh on headline inflation... 2nd December 2025 · 17 mins read
Europe Economics Focus ECB interest rates cuts doing little to boost growth Aside from the monetary loosening undertaken by the ECB at the beginning of the global financial crisis, its interest rate cuts from mid-2024 to mid-2025 were the deepest over a 12-month period in its... 1st December 2025 · 15 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly German pension policy: backsliding more than France? While much attention has been given recently to pension policy in France, it has gone almost unnoticed that the German cabinet has approved a pension package that could be significantly more costly... 28th November 2025 · 8 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Oct. 25) Strong increases in industrial production and retail sales in October suggest that Japan’s economy at least stopped contracting this quarter. 28th November 2025 · 2 mins read
