Canada Economics Update Bank's surveys provide mixed messages for GDP and jobs There were some signs of life in the Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys, with the pick-up in the indicator of future sales suggesting that the outlook for GDP growth is much better than the... 19th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone households still cautious We learnt this week that the euro-zone’s household saving rate remained very high in Q3 last year. With households still reporting low levels of confidence, we think they will continue to be reluctant... 16th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Spending binge reinforces case for RBA to hike With Australian households continuing to loosen their purse strings, private consumption is almost certain to have recorded a bumper gain last quarter. Moreover, as firms report increasingly severe... 16th January 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Soft UK consumer spending in Q4 a sign of things to come A slew of data released in the first couple of weeks of the year suggests that retailers had a disappointing so-called “Golden Quarter”. We suspect this is a sign of things to come and forecast that... 15th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE’s growth to ease but will continue to lead the Gulf The UAE’s economy enjoyed another strong year in 2025. Rising oil output will continue to support headline GDP growth over the coming quarters. And while there are signs that that activity in the rest... 15th January 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Nov. 2025) The broad-based gains in headline, core (ex-autos), and control group retail sales in November indicate that household spending remained resilient early in the holiday season, with the government... 14th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Jan. 2026) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We believe the RBA will join the rather exclusive club of advanced economy central banks that tightens... 14th January 2026 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Jan. 2026) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economy will continue to grow at a healthy pace, which should ensure that the labour market... 12th January 2026 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly Household Spending Indicator (Nov. 25) With Australian households continuing to loosen their purse strings, the case for the RBA to tighten policy is growing increasingly compelling. 12th January 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Sentiment (Jan 2026) Consumer sentiment rose to a four-month high, with an improvement to the current conditions index hinting to a labour market that remains weak, but is improving. Admittedly the level of consumer... 9th January 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jan. 2026) Soft overseas demand, the past rises in interest rates and higher taxes mean that GDP will grow by only 1.0% in 2026. The weakening in the labour market last year should continue to bear down on wage... 8th January 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Nov. 2025) November’s money and lending figures suggest that while the pre-Budget speculation about tax rises had little influence on households’ borrowing decisions, they were inclined to save a bit more. 5th January 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Distorted data makes it hard to read the macro tea leaves The final full week of the year delivered a smorgasbord of shutdown-affected data releases, some fresher than others and some downright rotten. We doubt this new batch of data will have any major... 19th December 2025 · 9 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Oct. 2025) The sizeable fall in core retail sales in October chimes with weak consumer confidence, although large temporary drivers in either direction are partly to blame. While the solid advance estimate for... 19th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB looking on the bright side The ECB was in a slightly festive mood this week as officials nudged up their forecasts for economic growth and inflation. We think this is only partly justified as we are sceptical about President... 19th December 2025 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales & Public Finances (Nov. 2025) November’s retail sales and public finances data reveal some tentative signs of improvement, but both are coming too late to make much difference to retailers in the so-called “Golden Quarter” and for... 19th December 2025 · 3 mins read
