UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Aug. 2026) The fall in CPI inflation from 2.8% in May to a 14-month low of 2.6% in June suggests there was a lot of disinflation in the system before the start of the Iran war. And the continued weakness in the... 6th August 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (June 2026) Even though retail sales declined in June, they rose by 0.2% q/q in the second quarter, indicating that higher energy prices didn’t have much of an effect on household consumption. With consumer... 6th August 2026 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA’s next move will be down, but not until H2 2027 We expect the RBA to leave rates on hold at its August meeting. Although the Bank is likely to continue talking tough on inflation for a while, we don’t think it will go so far as to raise rates again... 4th August 2026 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Household Spending (Q2/June 2026) With headwinds to private consumption still looming, we doubt that the moderate pickup in household spending last quarter will move the needle for the RBA. Our base case remains that the Bank is done... 4th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (August 2026) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Data released over the past month showed that Australia's labour market, housing market, and... 3rd August 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany: upward revisions but still looking sickly Revisions to Germany’s GDP data suggest that the economy did a little better than previously thought since 2024. But it has still been the clear “sick man of Europe” in the 2020s and its long term... 31st July 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (July 2026) Global growth appears to be regaining momentum, led by the US among advanced economies. We expect this trend to continue, supported by strong AI investment despite the risk posed by renewed... 30th July 2026 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Jun. 2026) The smaller-than-expected 0.13% m/m gain in the core PCE deflator in June will be a welcome sight for Fed officials, though that still only translated to small decline in the annual rate to 3.3%, from... 30th July 2026 · 2 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: China’s growth steady in Q2, despite Iran war Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth picked up in June and held steady over Q2. While weak domestic goods demand has dented industry, that has been offset by stronger services sector growth. 27th July 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Are indirect effects just around the corner? The indirect effects of higher energy prices on inflation have so far been absent, but they could start to emerge in the second half of the year if energy prices remain high or rise further. That... 24th July 2026 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Jun. 2026) June’s strong rise in retail sales volumes suggests that consumers kept on spending despite the rise in energy prices since the war in Iran began. This supports our view that the economy performed... 24th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Jul. 26) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth seems to have accelerated after the start of the Iran War and there are early signs that... 22nd July 2026 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (July 2026) We expect GDP growth to average 2.2% and 2.3% this year and next, driven by strong AI-investment and a rebound in consumption growth. The labour market appears to be stabilising, and we expect the... 20th July 2026 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Jun 2026) The moderate gains in headline and control group retail sales in June are much better than they look considering the softness of price growth last month. Indeed, we estimate that real consumption... 16th July 2026 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China GDP (Q2) & Activity (Jun. 2026) The official GDP figures showed a sharper-than-expected slowdown in Q2, bringing them closer in line with our China Activity Proxy (CAP). This may largely represent a greater willingness to... 15th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s surveys highlight vulnerability outside of oil sector The Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys point to an economy tarnished by the oil price shock, with improvements in activity isolated to the oil sector. Activity in the non-oil economy should... 6th July 2026 · 4 mins read
