Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Inflation and EC Survey (Dec.), Retail Sales (Nov.) 6th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update What lower gas prices mean for the euro-zone We have revised our European wholesale gas price forecast down and, as a result, now expect euro-zone inflation to fall more rapidly than we had previously anticipated. In turn, this means that real... 5th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the New Year turnaround in euro-zone bonds Although we see some near-term risk due to the still-hawkish ECB, we expect the yield of 10-year German Bunds to decline further by end-2023. Drop-Ins – The World In 2023 (10-11 January): Will 2023 be... 4th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Dec.) December’s final PMIs suggest the euro-zone economy held up better than we expected in Q4, but are still consistent with a mild recession. They also suggest price pressures remain very high. 4th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (December) The sharp fall in German inflation in December was due to one-off energy subsidies so it will probably reverse in January. Headline inflation is still likely to decline rapidly in March, but we think... 3rd January 2023 · 2 mins read
Energy Update EU gas price cap unlikely to be triggered The EU’s new policy to limit gas prices is unlikely to be activated next year. And with so many caveats built in, it seems the only thing countries agreed on was that a cap was indeed needed to show... 20th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Recession will do little to dampen price pressures We think the euro-zone is now at the start of a recession, driven by high inflation, tightening financial conditions and weak external demand, and anticipate two quarters of contraction followed by a... 19th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economic Outlook 2023 marked by recession and disinflation We continue to expect the world to slip into recession in 2023 as the effects of high inflation and rising interest rates are felt. Our forecasts are below the consensus across the board but... 19th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Hourly Labour Costs (Q3) Euro-zone wage growth has accelerated this year and we expect it to stay strong. In turn, this will contribute to core inflation remaining above 2% in 2023. 19th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Dec.) The further increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index in December and the general improvement in the surveys over the past two months suggests the outlook for the German economy has improved. But we... 19th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (December) 19th December 2022 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap ECB steals the show, but the dollar rebounds After a choppy few days in financial markets, the US dollar is ending the week a touch stronger against most other major currencies as risk sentiment has worsened sharply in the wake of the latest... 16th December 2022 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Hawkish ECB, survey rebound continues Thursday’s ECB meeting confirmed that the Bank is a long way away from pivoting to looser policy. And the strong inflation print in November and rebound in activity surveys in December are only likely... 16th December 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (December) The flash PMIs for December provide more evidence that businesses in some parts of the euro-zone have become a bit less gloomy about their current situation. But they still point to a contraction in... 16th December 2022 · 2 mins read
