Asset Allocation Update Making the case for euro-zone equities While euro-zone equities face some meaningful short-term headwinds which threaten their recent run of outperformance, we still expect them to fare better than US equities over the next couple of years... 13th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Economic outlook improving, but still poor The euro-zone economy held up better than we anticipated in Q4 and the outlook for the coming quarters has improved. But with high inflation set to continue to weigh on household incomes and the drag... 13th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Q4 contraction may have been avoided The euro-zone economy held up a bit better than we expected at the end of last year. On balance, the data point to GDP flat-lining or contracting only slightly in Q4. 13th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Dutch offices unlikely to fall over EPC cliff-edge The recent commencement of stricter office EPC legislation in the Netherlands has raised concerns that Dutch office valuations may be on the edge of a regulatory precipice, given the large proportion... 13th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Investors already seem braced for further falls in inflation Further big falls in inflation seem now to be discounted in major developed markets, especially the US. That helps to underpin our view that high-grade government bond markets will only rally a little... 12th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB tightening starting to take effect November’s money and credit data showed that the effects of tighter ECB policy were only just starting to be felt. So while some of the recent economic data have been a bit stronger than expected, the... 11th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update French pension reform could be agreed despite strikes Reform of the French pension system is notoriously difficult and it is possible that the proposals unveiled yesterday will be watered down or even withdrawn completely. However, on balance, we think... 11th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Worst case scenarios avoided, but outlook still poor There has been a further slight improvement in prospects for the euro-zone in recent weeks. Business surveys suggest that activity is no longer contracting sharply, headline inflation seems to be past... 10th January 2023 · 11 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (Nov.) and Sentix Survey (Jan.) The stability of the euro-zone unemployment rate in November, at a record low of 6.5%, shows that the labour market held up even better than we expected at the end of last year. And the third... 9th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Nov.) The rise in German industrial output in November confirms that industrial output held up better than we had expected in Q4. However, while the recent slump in gas prices should help energy-intensive... 9th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Despite hawkish ECB, we expect lower E-Z yields While we think the hawkish ECB poses a near-term threat to euro-zone government bonds, we still expect their yields to be lower, in general, by the end of this year. Drop-Ins – The World In 2023 (10... 6th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update The key developments to look out for in 2023 The property repricing in response to higher interest rates has not yet run its course. Coupled with a recession-driven slowdown in rent growth, this means 2023 is shaping up to be another bleak year... 6th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Some (moderately) good news on inflation and activity Data released this week suggest that headline inflation in the euro-zone has passed its peak, but that core price pressures remain strong. Meanwhile, the latest activity indicators have been a bit... 6th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Retail Sales (Nov.) Final HICP and ESI (Dec.) The fall in inflation and improvement in economic sentiment in December suggest that the euro-zone’s case of stagflation is not quite as acute as feared a few months ago. Nonetheless, a technical... 6th January 2023 · 2 mins read
