Latin America Economics Update Brazil inflation: from bad to worse Brazil’s inflation data are going from bad to worse. Headline inflation rose to a 12-month high of 6.2% last month and is likely to remain above 6% for at least the first half of this year. The... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB softens its tone slightly, but makes no promises The European Central Bank (ECB) took a slightly softer tone this month, acknowledging that a stronger exchange rate might alter the inflation outlook. But President Draghi stopped a long way short of... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Sustained recovery in BDI still some way off One commodity-related indicator that has failed to show any signs of a revival is the Baltic Dry Index of global shipping costs, which remains more than 90% below its pre-crisis peak. Indeed, the BDI... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Rising wealth will continue to boost GDP Further increases in both house and equity prices would take net household wealth back above prerecession levels later this year, perhaps helping to boost GDP by around 0.7%. This wealth effect should... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s labour market puzzle The most puzzling aspect of Brazil’s poor economic performance of the past 18 months is that it has come alongside an improvement in the labour market. We think the explanation lies in Brazil’s low... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC maintains accommodative stance Not only did the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) leave policy on hold again today, but in his testimony to the Treasury Committee, Governor-to-be Mark Carney sounded less keen than before on a change... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Are Emerging Markets about to take off? Our Emerging Market GDP trackers suggest that growth across the emerging world has picked in recent months. We expect a further acceleration over the first half of this year, but sustaining the... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Dec.) December’s rise in German industrial production does not alter the likelihood that GDP fell sharply in Q4, but it does add to signs that the economy entered 2013 in a slightly better state. 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Q4 GDP probably still fell despite recovery in orders The continued recovery in machinery orders in December suggests that business investment is on the mend. On balance, we still think that GDP contracted for a second successive quarter in Q4 2012... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What does the rise in bond yields mean for commercial property? The recent rises in UK bond yields have been far too small to make much of a dent in the already-high property/bond yield spread and, in any event, are likely to go into reverse. Indeed, we think that... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets rally as euro-zone fears recede This is the first edition of our new monthly Emerging Europe Markets Monitor. The purpose of this publication is to analyse the developments in local markets over the past month and give an update on... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production & Trade (Dec. 12) December’s industrial production and trade figures added to evidence that the economic picture improved at the tail end of last year. But the fact that the trade deficit for the year as a whole... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jan.) The usual rollercoaster around Chinese New Year will have caused inflation to fall in January before sending it soaring this month. Once the seasonal volatility has faded, current evidence suggests... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Door hasn't closed on looser policy in Czech and Poland Policymakers in both Poland and the Czech Republic are becoming more optimistic about the economic outlook. But even so, we still expect a further cut in Polish interest rates next month. And while... 6th February 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Yen looks set for a correction The yen has already fallen to within touching distance of our mid-year forecast of 95 to the dollar, while the surge in the Nikkei has left it only a little short of our target of 11,600. However... 6th February 2013 · 1 min read
