Canada Economics Update As housing goes, so goes the economy The latest batch of economic data, particularly the slump in construction activity, supports our view that Canada's economy will expand by only 1.0% in 2013, well below the expectations of most other... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will the recovery in cotton prices be sustained? The price of cotton, which fell by around 20% in 2012, has turned around to become the best performing of the major agricultural commodities so far this year, rising by about 10%. This recovery has... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Our verdict on Governor Shirakawa We expect the two-day meeting of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board to conclude this Thursday (14th) without any major policy initiatives. A weak Q4 GDP figure might still prompt the Board to add... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Should we be concerned that starts are outstripping sales? Housing starts have risen by 37% over the past year, but new home sales have only increased by 9%. Rather than being a sign that speculative overbuilding has returned however, this gap reflects the... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latest devaluation won't cure Venezuela's economic ills The Venezuelan authorities bowed to the inevitable late on Friday and devalued the bolivar fuerte. Although this should help to ease some of the strains in the public finances, it won’t do much to... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What would more flexible inflation-targeting achieve? Mark Carney suggested last Thursday that, rather than changing the monetary framework altogether, introducing more flexibility into the existing inflation-targeting regime is his preferred option. The... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will inflation throw another spanner in the works? The continued strength of inflation, resulting in further falls in households’ real pay, raises the question of whether we can ever look forward to a period when it finally eases and so supports... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Political stability needed to get Egypt's debt onto a stable path Continued unrest has led to a worsening of Egypt’s fiscal position over the past year or so and we estimate that fiscal tightening of 3% of GDP is needed just to stabilise the debt ratio. However... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Property prices in Emerging Asia - an update Property prices look significantly overvalued in Hong Kong and parts of Taiwan. As such, while the risk of a slump in exports bringing recession in these trade-oriented economies has subsided recently... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Expectations may now be too high to meet Hopes that a new leadership team at the Bank of Japan will deliver real change probably have a little further to run, even though the transition could still become quite messy. However, the latest... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly What's the trigger for a house price correction? Those still looking for what might trigger a major house price correction in Canada need look no further than Vancouver's housing bubble, where house prices have already begun to deflate. The sudden... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Surge in gasoline prices comes at just the wrong time As if households didn't already have enough to worry about with the expiry of the payroll tax cut at the start of this year, they suddenly find themselves having to cope with a sudden spike in... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Mariodona’s words won’t be enough Mario Draghi halted the rise of the euro last week merely by hinting that the ECB might respond to the currency’s strength. But with other central banks taking action to weaken their currencies, we... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation Report to show nastier inflation picture The MPC took the unusual step of issuing a detailed statement alongside its no-change decision last week. It may be that the Committee viewed its decision to reinvest its gilts that mature next month... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
