Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The increases in headline and core inflation in July are consistent with the recent improvement in economic growth and raise the probability of a second rate hike by the Bank of Canada before December... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jun.) The 1.0% m/m decline in manufacturing sales volumes in June was broadly consistent with the drop in non-commodity exports already reported for that month. For the second quarter as a whole... 17th August 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Toronto housing market down and out Resale housing activity in Toronto plunged more than 40% last month and signs point to continued weakness in August. In similar fashion to Vancouver, resale activity will likely flounder over the... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jul.) Although the national annual rate of house price inflation remained at 14.2% in July, this is very much overshadowed by the more recent slump in resale housing activity over the past few months. 14th August 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Supply shortage doesn’t explain high housing valuations Housing bulls argue that the surge in house prices in recent years and the current strength of new home construction are justified by strong population growth in Canada, but the data suggest otherwise... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy seemingly unfazed by housing slowdown Despite softening home sales, the incoming data point to solid GDP growth in the second quarter, possibly outpacing the 3.7% q/q annualised rate posted in the first quarter. Needless to say, the... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Higher Canadian dollar no threat to economy The two-month rally in the Canadian dollar, from US$0.73 to US$0.80, doesn’t pose any direct threat to the economy, particularly given the significant decline in the real trade-weighted exchange rate... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (May) Despite the recent slump in home resales, monthly GDP growth accelerated by 0.6% m/m in May, which will reinforce the Bank of Canada’s confidence that the economy can perhaps withstand higher interest... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The fourth consecutive weekly drop in commercial crude stocks in the US provides further evidence that OPEC’s output cuts are starting to have an impact on inventory levels. We expect this trend to... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar rally likely to fade before year end The rally in the Canadian dollar to a 14-month high of US$0.79, from US$0.74 a month ago, is likely to fade before year end. While higher oil prices might allow a temporary lift in the coming months... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) Although the headline inflation rate fell to 1.0% in June, from 1.3%, the uptick in two of the three core inflation measures suggests that some of the temporary factors restraining inflation are now... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Vancouver housing remains in the doldrums Despite widespread claims by housing pundits that Vancouver’s housing market is recovering from last year’s slump, the incoming data so far this month continue to show that home sales there are... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jun.) Housing starts surprised on the upside in June, with the 8.3% m/m increase breaking a three-month run of declines. While rising material prices dented homebuilder confidence in July, very tight market... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (May) Manufacturing sales volumes grew by 1.1% m/m in May, evidence that the industrial sector rebounded in the second quarter. While sales were boosted by a large gain in transportation, there were some... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly One more interest rate hike at most this year The Bank of Canada’s new-found confidence in the economy and forecast rebound in core inflation have prompted speculation that interest rates might rise much higher this year. But with household debt... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada gambles on rate hike The Bank of Canada’s decision to begin raising interest rates is a gamble that might have to be reversed before long. With the housing bubble already showing signs of bursting and household debt at... 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
