Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Dec.) The gradual strengthening in core inflation evident in December’s consumer price figures would seem to justify the Bank of Canada’s recent decision to raise interest rates again. 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Foreigners aren't to blame for high house prices New housing data showing that non-residents account for only a small fraction of the housing stock and claims that these foreigners aren’t to blame for high housing prices have been meet with ridicule... 22nd December 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Oct.) The stagnation in monthly GDP in October, partly due to a significant decline in mining output, indicate that the economy lost some momentum in the fourth quarter. Even allowing for a rebound in... 22nd December 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q3 2017) & Labour Force Survey (Nov.) Despite the further slowdown in housing, the continued growth in the economy in the third quarter, and further decline in the unemployment rate in November will undoubtedly strengthen market... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Legalisation of marijuana not without risks to economy The legalisation and regulation of marijuana next year will not significantly improve the economic growth outlook, although legitimising a previously black market industry will provide a modest one... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Faster profit growth won't spur investment The faster growth in corporate profits in the third quarter is an encouraging sign for economic growth, but the details were less impressive. In addition, with oil prices still relatively low despite... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Oct.) The drop in the headline inflation rate to 1.4% in October, from 1.6%, mainly reflects the drop in energy prices, which have already begun to rise again. More importantly, all three core inflation... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Home ownership rate could tumble The unprecedented upswing in the national home ownership rate, fuelled in large part by a credit boom, appears to have peaked and is now going into reverse, even though the aging population should be... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canadian dollar likely to drop further next year After strengthening to US$0.82 in early September, interest rate differentials have pushed the Canadian dollar back down to US$0.79. We expect a further widening in rate differentials next year, with... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What would the collapse of Nafta mean for Mexico? The immediate effects of a collapse in Nafta on Mexico’s economy might be smaller than many expect – we would probably nudge down our GDP forecast for 2018 by something like 0.5-1.0%-pts. The effects... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Focus Core inflation likely to remain below 2% target Although some measures have edged higher in recent months, we doubt that core inflation will return to the 2% inflation target anytime soon. Even if the output gap closes by the end of this year, the... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Tougher mortgage rules will only make matters worse Federal banking regulators decision to forge ahead with recent proposals to tighten mortgage rules further will only make matters much worse for the already faltering housing market. Needless to say... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep.) Although headline employment rose by a moderate 10,000 in September, the 112,000 rebound in full-time employment is a positive sign for income and consumption growth. In addition, the Bank of Canada... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Aug.) The continued weakness in export volumes and softness in imports indicate that the pace of economic growth slowed sharply in the third quarter. As things stand, we think the balance of risks around... 5th October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Government should tread carefully on tax policy The current proposals to raise taxes on small business owners will raise little additional revenue for the Federal government and, at a time when the US is considering slashing business tax rates... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Aerospace dispute raises spectre of trade war The US Commerce Department’s preliminary decision to slap prohibitive countervailing duties on Canadian aerospace firm Bombardier threatens to cause a major trade spat between Canada and the US... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
