Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s request from the IMF will not be enough Egypt’s decision to request a $3.2 billion stand-by facility from the IMF will not be enough to cover its external funding needs in 2012. Instead, it will need at least double that amount to avoid a... 17th January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update IMF will need to address Egypt's external funding problems The Egyptian government’s decision to resume negotiations with the IMF is good news. The proposed $3 billion facility would help plug a gaping hole in the budget. But it would not be sufficient to... 12th January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Dec.) The pick-up in Egypt’s headline inflation in December has increased the likelihood of another rate hike when the central bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC) meets in February. 10th January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil-importers will have no room for fiscal manoeuvre in 2012 The increase in the costs of food and fuel subsidies, and public sector salaries, has left most oil-importers in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) with no room to counteract the impact of a... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Clouds gather over North Africa Successful elections in Tunisia and Morocco, and initially in Egypt, have been overshadowed by a marked deterioration in economic conditions in North Africa. Indeed, Egypt is at a growing risk of a... 20th December 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s GDP recovers but challenging times ahead Today’s reports that Egypt’s GDP grew by 0.5% y/y in the third quarter suggest that the economy has now recovered most of the initial losses in output brought about by the social unrest. However... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: teetering on the edge of a full-blown economic crisis The ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces’ (SCAF) dithering over securing external financial assistance has left Egypt teetering on the edge of a full-blown economic crisis. The central bank’s... 7th December 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Financing risk, not Islamist win, is the greatest threat in Egypt Although the official results from Egypt’s first round of elections have not yet been released, it is almost certain that the Freedom and Justice party (the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood)... 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian rate hike: another by-product of the unrest Today’s rate hike by 100 bps to 9.25% is a clear sign that Egypt’s central bank is increasingly concerned over growing balance of payments strains and the risk of a currency crisis. Although the... 24th November 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt erupts The past month has been dominated by events in Egypt. Renewed clashes between protestors and the security forces, coupled with the resignation of the interim government, have left parliamentary... 22nd November 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt election concerns add to already high financing risks The ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces’ (SCAF) dithering over securing external financial assistance has left Egypt teetering on the edge of a full-blown economic crisis. The central bank’s... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Raising deposit rates is not enough to support the Egyptian pound The decision by privately-owned banks in Egypt to raise deposit rates by around two percentage points may slow the rate of dollarization of resident accounts, which could help the central bank in its... 15th November 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: Inflation collapsing but no room for near-term rate cuts Although Egyptian inflation fell to its slowest rate for 4 years in October, currency concerns continue to prevent a near-term cut in interest rates. Indeed, if there is any rate change before the end... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: living on borrowed time We estimate that the Central Bank of Egypt has sufficient FX reserves to maintain its current rate of intervention in the foreign exchange markets until early next year. Assuming this month’s... 8th November 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Employment schemes in the GCC: silver bullet or damp squib? The recent moves by the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to increase the participation of their citizens in the private sector jobs market, notably Saudi Arabia’s Nitiqat scheme, are... 3rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Financing risks rise in the resource-poor countries The combination of deepening problems in advanced economies and the legacy of political unrest earlier this year has heightened the risk of fiscal and balance of payments crises in the resource-poor... 2nd November 2011 · 1 min read
