Financing risk, not Islamist win, is the greatest threat in Egypt

Although the official results from Egypt’s first round of elections have not yet been released, it is almost certain that the Freedom and Justice party (the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood) has won at least 40% of the vote. If this is confirmed, it would make Egypt the third country in North Africa, after Tunisia and Morocco, where Islamists have become the dominant political force. Our view is that, from an economic perspective at least, a Muslim-led parliament in Egypt should not worry investors.