Asia Economics Update New Zealand’s cash rate to stay low in 2013 The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its policy rate at 2.5% today, as was widely anticipated. Most analysts expect policy to be tightened significantly over the next two years. In contrast, we... 26th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth prospects - where we differ from consensus As the IMF released its latest forecasts yesterday and we published our Global Economic Outlook last week, this seems a good time to take stock of how our forecasts compare with others. Overall... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand likely to cut further The Bank of Thailand (BoT) lowered its policy rate by 25bp to 3.0% today, as expected. Thailand’s economy has been hit hard by floods and weak global demand is likely to limit the rebound in... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Market implications of an EMU break-up Risky asset markets have generally made a bright start to 2012. But our central scenario envisages a break-up of EMU this year initially involving Greece’s departure, an outcome that would presumably... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Reserve Bank of India cautious on rate cuts The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its cash reserve requirement today but left the repo rate on hold. The hawkish tone of the policy statement suggests that, although rate cuts are surely coming... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Asia's equities outperform in early 2012 Emerging Asia’s equities have risen by more than the global average so far this year, but we do not expect the outperformance to last. Stock markets in Asia typically underperform developed markets... 23rd January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Inflation has further to fall Inflation rose sharply in 2011 as a whole relative to 2010 across the region. However, we expect below-trend growth and lower commodity prices to pull down inflation significantly this year. With... 23rd January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update More policy loosening to come in the Philippines The Philippines’ central bank (BSP) cut its overnight rate by 25bp to 4.25% today, as expected. Exports have slumped and are unlikely to pick up much this year, while inflation is set to fall towards... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Farewell to the euro The euro-zone is slipping into a recession which we expect to be deep and prolonged and to result in the break-up of the single currency area. This will be a major drag on other European economies... 16th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s headline inflation falls but rate cut unlikely before March Data released today show a big drop in headline inflation, to 7.5% y/y in December. But the key measure of core inflation fell only slightly. Consequently, the Reserve Bank of India is likely to wait... 16th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Korea to cut by mid-year The Bank of Korea (BoK) has become increasingly worried about the growth outlook, but lingering inflation concerns are dissuading the central bank from loosening policy. We believe that inflation is... 16th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Policy stimulus to support growth in Asia The ongoing debt crisis in the euro-zone is likely to weigh on growth in Asia in 2012-13. Although the region’s most open economies are set to slow quite sharply, we forecast that growth in the region... 12th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Inflation risks are a concern in Indonesia Bank Indonesia (BI), kept its reference rate on hold today, as expected, after cutting rates by a cumulative 75bp in the final quarter of 2011. Despite the likelihood that inflation will accelerate... 12th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Elections in Asia - what they mean for the region A number of important elections and leadership changes are due to take place across emerging Asia over the next 12 months. The outcomes will have implications for economic policymaking and growth... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asia PMIs paint mixed picture December PMIs for Asia paint a mixed picture. The surveys suggest manufacturing output returned to growth in Australia, while in contrast to the weakness of recent data, factory output rebounded... 4th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How bad is the outlook for Indian growth? India’s economy has slowed abruptly in the past few months and now faces a downturn comparable to that of 2008-09. However, a big difference is that the authorities now have much less scope for policy... 26th December 2011 · 1 min read
