Asia Economics Update Indian inflation drops further The drop in inflation to 6.6% y/y in January results primarily from base effects and falling food prices. Nevertheless, there is sufficient evidence that underlying inflationary pressure has eased for... 14th February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus What can emerging economies do to help the rest of the world? Emerging economies will continue growing rapidly this year and next while, despite a strong start to the year, we expect advanced economies to manage sub-trend growth, at best. But rapid growth in... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia’s buoyant labour markets Asia’s rapid economic rebound following the 2008-09 global crisis has led to sharp falls in unemployment over the past couple of years. This has raised hopes that robust household spending will... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea's central bank too sanguine on outlook for growth The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate at 3.25% today, as expected. Our view is that Korea’s policymakers are likely to shift their focus away from tackling inflation towards supporting growth... 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update A cut too far by Bank Indonesia? Bank Indonesia (BI) cut its reference rate again today by 25bp. The decision was somewhat unexpected. The central bank had already cut rates by a cumulative 75bp in the final quarter of last year and... 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How much will weak export demand weigh on Asia? Exports from Asia have weakened significantly in recent months. Not only are they contracting in y/y terms in many countries, but they have slowed much more sharply compared with other emerging... 8th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia’s central bank to resume cutting this year The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unexpectedly kept its cash rate at 4.25% today. Nonetheless, we continue to expect conditions outside of the resources sector to remain weak and, despite the recent... 7th February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Euro-crisis: how big is the threat of financial contagion for EMs? The economies of Asia and Latin America should be able to weather any financial contagion stemming from Europe’s debt crisis. But the economies of emerging Europe – notably Hungary, Turkey and the... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Growth to ease only slightly in Indonesia Indonesia’s economy continued to grow strongly in the fourth quarter of last year. Underlining the economy’s resilience, household consumption and investment growth actually accelerated despite a... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank Indonesia approaches policy dilemma Inflation has been falling across Asia, and the Q4 GDP data released so far show that growth is slowing too. For the most part, we expect these trends to continue. But Indonesia is an important... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs signal industrial slowdown has abated Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) improved for four out of the five economies in Asia (outside Japan and China) for which they were released today. This suggests that the slowdown in industrial... 1st February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia’s policy rate likely to be cut this year Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) kept its overnight rate at 3.0% today, as was widely anticipated. Looking ahead, we think that Malaysia’s exports will struggle and that inflation is likely to fall further... 31st January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan back in recession Taiwan’s economy contracted for a second successive quarter at the end of 2011 due not only to weak exports but to lacklustre domestic demand too. The central bank is soon likely to join the regional... 31st January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Weak growth to continue in the Philippines The Philippines recorded another quarter of weak growth in Q4 due to continued weak export demand. Although the resilience of domestic demand is encouraging, sluggish global demand is likely to weigh... 30th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How long will the rebound in Asian currencies last? Most Asian currencies have risen strongly so far this year amid a recovery in global risk appetite. However, the rebound is unlikely to last long. We are of the opinion that the euro-zone will slip... 30th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s weak growth to bring rate cuts soon Today’s Q4 GDP data from Korea show that the economy ended 2011 on a very weak note. Growth is likely to be sluggish at best over the next few quarters amid soft global demand, while Korea’s inflation... 26th January 2012 · 1 min read
