Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging market vehicle sales hint at consumer slowdown The latest vehicle sales data suggest that emerging market consumer spending has taken a turn for the worse. Moreover, the fact that vehicle sales growth has outstripped production in Latin America... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What should we make of Korea’s strengthening currency? The Korean won has been one of Asia’s strongest-performing currencies this year, which has prompted speculation of a shift in Korea’s exchange rate policy and worries that currency appreciation is... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Export improvement so far limited to Asia There are tentative signs that export performance in some emerging markets has begun to improve. But for now this pick-up seems to have been limited to manufacturing-based economies, mainly in Asia... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia on hold for now, but a cut is likely next year Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) kept its policy rate on hold today at 3.0%, as was widely expected. The economy has performed well amid the global slowdown and so there is little need for the central bank... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Interest rates in Indonesia set for prolonged hold Indonesia’s central bank (BI) kept its reference rate at 5.75% today, as expected. With inflation relatively low and economic growth remaining strong, we expect BI to remain on hold for the remainder... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China's leadership change matters more to EMs than US election The imminent leadership change in China is a more significant event for emerging economies than the re-election of President Obama. The installation of a cohesive Chinese leadership committed to... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australian central bank set for a period on the sidelines The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its cash rate at 3.25% today. Unless global conditions take a sharp turn for the worse, we now expect the RBA to remain on hold for the next year or so. We... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Strong growth in Indonesia, but will outperformance last? Indonesia recorded another quarter of strong growth in Q3, with the pace of expansion down only slightly compared with the previous quarter. Weak exports will act as a drag on growth over the next... 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Consensus too hawkish on Asia’s policy rate outlook All four central banks which announce their policy rate decisions this week are likely to signal that global worries are a key downside risk for local growth. Only in Australia do we expect a rate cut... 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Is rapid credit growth in Asia something to be worried about? For emerging Asia as a whole, private sector credit as a share of GDP has surged over the past few years and is now at an all-time high, leading some commentators to suggest that the region could be... 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing still stuck in the doldrums Today’s PMI data for Asia showed some small signs of improvement but overall conditions within the region’s manufacturing sectors are still very weak. The likelihood that global demand will remain... 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Has China helped or hurt emerging economies? China’s development has had a significant impact on emerging market growth, and not all economies have unambiguously benefitted. Even countries that have made the most of Chinese demand may find... 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan’s growth likely to disappoint consensus Today’s GDP data from Taiwan show that the economy returned to y/y growth in Q3. However, we think growth is unlikely to pick up strongly in the coming quarters. Given our view that the global economy... 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Reserve Bank of India to continue resisting rate cut pressure The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its key policy rate unchanged today in the face of government pressure on it to cut. With inflation likely to remain high, we suspect the RBI will continue to... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Market too hawkish on most EM interest rates in 2013 We expect relatively weak economic growth to keep interest rates in most emerging markets lower than the market currently anticipates next year. The key exceptions are India, where we suspect that... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Should we worry about Asia's current account trends? Most Asian economies have either seen their current account surpluses decline or their deficits increase in recent quarters, which has raised fears that the region is vulnerable to a balance of... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
