Asia Economics Weekly What will Korea's election mean for its economy? A presidential election will take place in Korea on Wednesday. Despite the political differences between the two frontrunners, their economic policies have much in common. As such, we think the... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan's policy rate has further to fall The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) cut its discount rate by 50bp to 9.5% today. We think monetary policy is likely to be loosened further in a bid to revive private sector credit growth, although rate... 14th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Export recovery is uneven and lacks strength The recovery in emerging market exports remains uneven, with manufacturing economies, mainly in Asia, continuing to outperform commodity exporters. What’s more, there are already some signs that the... 14th December 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea's central bank has more work to do The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate at 2.75% today, as was widely expected. Korea’s economic slowdown has bottomed out, but we think growth is unlikely to rebound strongly and that inflation... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Reforms needed to prevent rise in India's public debt ratio A combination of rapid economic growth and low bond yields has resulted in a gradual decline in India’s public debt ratio since 2003. But the debt ratio will rise again in the coming years if the... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A better start to Q4 but Emerging Europe still struggling Our EM GDP Tracker suggests that emerging market growth has accelerated a little in the final quarter of this year. But growth remains subdued by the standards of the past decade and the recent... 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Exports to euro-zone to remain a source of EM weakness Weak demand from the euro-zone accounts for about two-fifths of the decline in emerging market GDP growth over the past year or so, and the drag looks set to intensify as Europe slides into an even... 12th December 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rate cuts in Sri Lanka are premature We believe today’s unexpected rate cut by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) is premature in light of the large external problems still facing the economy. Given the CBSL’s current dovish stance, we... 12th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus What to expect from emerging markets in 2013 Emerging markets (EMs) will remain a relative bright spot in 2013. But with export demand from the developed world likely to remain subdued and structural problems dragging on growth in many of the... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Has Vietnam's monetary loosening cycle come to an end? Vietnam’s central bank has been the most aggressive rate-cutter in Asia this year, slashing its policy rate by a cumulative 500bp to 10%. Although inflation has picked up in recent months, we think... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How big a threat is inflation to emerging markets? Inflation is unlikely to be a major threat to most emerging markets in 2013. The two exceptions to this are Venezuela and Argentina, where high inflation will put downward pressure on their currencies... 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Can Australia cope as its mining boom cools? Today’s GDP data showed that Australia, unusually for a developed economy, is continuing to grow at speed. But its mining boom is nearing its peak. In the short term, this means that growth will slow... 5th December 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia's central bank likely to cut again The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut its cash rate by 25bp to 3.0% today. We expect the RBA to cut again in early 2013 to support the economy through a cooling of the mining boom. 4th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Stronger export orders boost EM manufacturers A turnaround in export orders has given a boost to emerging world manufacturers, according to the PMIdata released over the last couple of days. However, with domestic demand in emerging economies... 4th December 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing stabilises, but sustained pick-up unlikely ahead Today’s PMIs suggest that conditions within most of Asia’s manufacturing sectors either stabilised or strengthened in November. While conditions could improve further over the next few months, we... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asian currencies undervalued, but still set to weaken Most currencies in Asia look undervalued. However, it would be wrong to conclude that Asia’s currencies are set for rapid appreciation. In 2013, we think an escalation in the euro-zone crisis will... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
