Global Economics Update Refined product prices pose upside inflation risk The surge in refined petroleum product prices has amplified the inflationary impact of this year’s energy shock, pushing fuel inflation above levels implied by crude oil prices alone. While we expect... 8th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update El Niño to reduce upside risks for EU natural gas prices By helping to limit heating demand and natural gas consumption in late-autumn and early-winter, an El Niño-driven warm start to the winter in Europe could reduce the extent to which European gas-users... 8th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar: North Field to turbocharge the recovery Qatar’s economy has been dealt a much larger blow from the Iran war than many of its Gulf neighbours. So long as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz flows more freely from early next year, as we... 7th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Why aren’t crude prices lower?; EU mulls diesel release Despite the pick-up in crude oil exports from the Middle East in late September, market participants appear to be factoring in a larger risk of crude flows falling back again than they did during the... 2nd October 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (September 2026) September’s HICP data show that almost all of the increase in inflation since the Iran war began is due to higher fuel prices and energy bills. There are some signs that the indirect effects of higher... 2nd October 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Where to hide from the bond market rout Most assets would be affected if US yields continued to rise, but some – including bonds in economies with less-ingrained price pressures and weak currencies – might be the best of a bad bunch. 30th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Africa resilient but pockets of vulnerability remain Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa should remain resilient despite high energy prices and tighter global financial conditions. We’re positive relative to the consensus on growth in much of the region... 25th September 2026 · 19 mins read
Commodities Weekly US diesel ban; crude scarcity; China’s copper squeeze The prospect of a US ban on diesel exports threatens to make a bad situation worse, especially as signs of physical scarcity in the crude oil market have emerged. Our sense is that while the White... 25th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update The anatomy of the diesel “shock” It now seems more likely than not that some form of export restriction of US diesel will come into place ahead of the midterms which will exacerbate the ongoing diesel “shock”. Most refineries have... 24th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Investors expecting too many hikes from the ECB The euro-zone economy is likely to continue growing at around its trend rate of 1% over the next year or two. Among the largest countries, Germany, France and Italy will grow at a modest pace while... 24th September 2026 · 25 mins read
Commodities Update China’s appetite for oil has reached a fork in the road With the conflict in the Middle East constraining OPEC’s influence on oil supply, changes in Chinese oil demand have become the “swing” factor in the global oil market. China probably could cut back... 24th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update US export ban would add fuel to the diesel crisis A ban on diesel exports by the US would exacerbate the existing severe strains in the global diesel market and drive prices outside of the US even higher in the short term. Nonetheless, given that a... 23rd September 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (September 2026) September’s decline in consumer confidence shows that households’ moods have soured as energy prices have risen. But as long as oil and natural gas prices don’t rise a lot further, we think household... 22nd September 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly A tale of two shocks Events this week highlighted two of the biggest challenges facing Europe's economy: the energy shock and the China shock. We expect euro-zone GDP to keep rising over the coming quarters despite higher... 18th September 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Lessons from the pipeline attack; the Fed and commodities The net impact of the recent attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline could even feasibly result in slightly higher oil flows over time. But the bigger picture is that the oil market remains in a... 18th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone inflation to hit 4% by December We forecast headline inflation in the euro-zone to jump from 3.2% in August to 3.8% in September. And we think that increases in energy, food and core inflation will push it up to 4% by December. But... 17th September 2026 · 3 mins read
