Europe Economics Weekly French bond rally looks overdone The French government's survival after bypassing parliament to implement the 2026 budget has done nothing to improve the country's long-term debt dynamics. So we think that the recent narrowing of... 30th January 2026 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Security guarantees “with strings", dovish central banks Reports this week suggest the US has made the offer of security guarantees for Ukraine conditional on territorial concessions to Russia. The macro implications will depend on how credible those... 30th January 2026 · 10 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly An LDP majority will not be fiscally profligate New polling suggests that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party is on track to secure an outright majority in the lower house following elections on February 8th. Although there have been concerns in... 30th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly The dollar and MENA, US-Iran tensions, Saudi project delays This year's dollar rout has taken Gulf currencies down too, but the impact on inflation is likely to be small - and inflation is very low in any case. Elsewhere, Egypt stands to be a beneficiary from... 29th January 2026 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What if the US strikes Iran (again)? The build-up of US military forces in the Middle East has led to growing concerns about an attack on Iran and has pushed up oil prices. In light of these developments, we are re-sending this... 29th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 2026) Our Middle East & North Africa Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Middle East and North Africa is set for the fastest pace of GDP... 29th January 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three market-moving EM elections to watch this year Elections in Brazil, Colombia and Hungary have the greatest potential to deliver large financial market moves this year. A shift towards more investor-friendly policymaking and improved fiscal... 28th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update MSCI threat adds to Indonesia’s woes The slump in Indonesia’s stock market today in the wake of a threat by MSCI to downgrade the country to “frontier market” status is the latest in a long list of issues that investors are grappling... 28th January 2026 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Benefits of India-EU trade deal shouldn’t be underplayed It may be tempting to conclude that the long-awaited India-EU trade deal announced today will only have a small economic impact. After all, key sectors such as agriculture remain off the table and the... 27th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Costa Rica’s election: the macro implications Costa Rica’s ruling party looks set to hold onto power at the general election on 1st February. A more fragmented legislature – as seems likely – may make it harder to pass reforms, including measures... 26th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Kast unveils his cabinet, Copom on hold next week Chilean president-elect Kast's cabinet suggest that the new administration's key priorities will be to strengthen Chile’s public finances and deregulate the economy. We doubt that this will lead to... 23rd January 2026 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The lasting legacy of Trump’s temporary tariff threat Although it took just four days for President Trump's Greenland tariff threat to be withdrawn, the longer lasting impacts on the UK economy could be an accelerated plan to boost defence spending and a... 23rd January 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Orbán’s playbook, Greenland saga, Bulgarian election Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is returning to the familiar playbook of loosening fiscal policy ahead of the election in April. Any signs that a widening in the budget deficit will be sustained... 23rd January 2026 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s external gains, Saudi real estate, Saudi-UAE tensions Data released this week showed that Egypt's current account deficit has continued to improve nearly two years on from the policy shift. The growing likelihood of a rebound in Suez Canal traffic will... 22nd January 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Trump’s threats strain US-Europe energy relationship Strains in US-Europe relations under President Trump mean that European policymakers may perceive the region’s growing dependence on the US for energy to be a strategic vulnerability. This is not as... 22nd January 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Insecurity in Nigeria: the north-south divide is widening US military strikes in northern Nigeria a few weeks ago refocussed attention on the country’s security challenges. Violence remains high nationwide and, while security is improving modestly in the... 22nd January 2026 · 4 mins read
