Latin America Economics Focus Brazil’s pension problem rears its head again There’s a growing acknowledgement that Brazil’s 2019 pension reform didn’t go far enough to ease fiscal pressures from the social security system. Indeed, Brazil is likely to see one of the largest... 19th February 2026 · 13 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly US-Iran, Kuwait’s budget, Saudi inflation, AI in the Gulf Unless Iran makes major concessions to reach a new nuclear deal with the US, the threat of US military intervention will rise - particularly given the build-up of forces in the region. Elsewhere... 19th February 2026 · 6 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook US and Asia to lead the AI decade Global growth will slow in the long run as population growth weakens and the scope for emerging market catch-up narrows, but there will be bright spots. We are increasingly confident that advances in... 18th February 2026 · 1 hr, 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Does Hungary need a US financial backstop? Marcio Rubio’s comments this week that the US might provide financial support to Hungary if needed seems to have been welcomed by local financial markets. Hungary’s public finances are not in good... 18th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Will Africa continue to shrug off surging Chinese Imports Chinese exports to Africa surged last year and we expect Africa’s trade deficit with China to persist presenting risks to domestic industrialisation ambitions. However, China has levers that it can... 17th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ramaphosa's SONA, CBN steps up FX liquidity South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa used his State of the Nation address to outline bold plans to tackle crime and improve infrastructure, but delivering on this will be challenging given the... 13th February 2026 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Up-and-down week foreshadows CUSMA renegotiation A week of political drama, much of it emanating from south of the border, provides useful insight into how we can expect the CUSMA renegotiation to unfold. 13th February 2026 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly China unlikely to accelerate sales of dollar assets Chinese regulators have reportedly asked banks to curb their exposure to US Treasuries. While Chinese banks' holdings of dollar-denominated bonds have decreased over the past year, they've largely... 13th February 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly What has the government ever done for us? The government has been supporting both economic and employment growth over the last year, while private sector activity has been weak and private sector employment has fallen. But this isn't the... 13th February 2026 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Bundesbank embracing joint borrowing? Comments by Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel this week suggest the German central bank has abandoned its long-standing opposition to EU joint borrowing. But while we might see some more jointly... 13th February 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukrainian elections? Tisza manifesto, Romania GDP Reports this week suggest that Ukraine has started to plan for elections and a referendum on a peace agreement, but most opinion polls suggest Ukrainians won't be supportive of an agreement that cedes... 13th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore’s AI budget, election round-up Singapore’s 2026 budget, which was announced on Thursday, signals a modest fiscal loosening for the coming year. The budget also placed significant emphasis on positioning the economy for the AI... 13th February 2026 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly US trade deal looking more palatable The fact sheet for the India-US trade deal was published at the start of this week, but by Wednesday it had been quietly revised. Two key changes stand out and improve the deal’s economic viability... 13th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt cabinet reshuffle, Saudi Vision 2030 This week’s cabinet reshuffle in Egypt has largely kept the status quo as the government seeks to affirm to the IMF and foreign investors its commitment to macro orthodoxy, whilst changes alongside... 12th February 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: first thoughts on Tisza’s manifesto The manifesto published by Tisza, the Hungarian opposition party which is currently the front-runner to win the upcoming election in April, sets out ambitious plans to unlock frozen EU funds, rein in... 9th February 2026 · 4 mins read
