China Economics Update PBOC’s policy shift doesn’t signal monetary easing The PBOC’s shift to an overnight policy rate target will give the central bank better control over short-term funding costs and marks another step towards a more conventional operating framework. But... 30th October 2026 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly A worrying shift in corporate loan demand On the surface, bank loans to corporates are still growing at a healthy clip, with weaker lending for property development and infrastructure largely offset by stronger lending elsewhere. But a... 30th October 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (October '26) A decisive end to the Iran war is still far away and, as a result, the economic recovery in the Gulf will be slow and bumpy. Our base case is that a sustained return to pre-war energy exports won’t... 29th October 2026 · 0 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Oct. 2026) Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth weakened further in Q3, in contrast to official figures which showed growth picking up. Exports continued to outperform on the back of strong AI and green... 29th October 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Weak credit demand adds to downside growth risks The ECB’s Q3 Bank Lending Survey showed credit standards tightening and demand weakening across most loan categories. This supports our view that GDP growth slowed to a crawl in Q3, while banks’... 27th October 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Will the drop in equities limit the scale of Fed hikes? Despite higher bond yields, strong equity price gains are keeping overall financial conditions supportive of economic activity. The equity market correction we expect next year should prevent the Fed... 26th October 2026 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.) Broad credit growth fell to a fresh record low last month, dragged down by continued weakness in bank lending. Household borrowing remained the main drag, reflecting weak appetite for debt-financed... 14th October 2026 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update ECL transition: an inflection point for India’s banks India’s transition to Expected Credit Loss (ECL) provisioning in April 2027 will reshape how banks account for risk. By requiring forward-looking loss estimates rather than waiting for defaults to... 13th October 2026 · 3 mins read
China Scenarios China Economic Scenarios - Q4 2026 China Scenarios brings together Capital Economics’ best-in-class research and proprietary data on China with Fathom’s world-leading scenario modelling and proprietary data. It contains six thematic... 9th October 2026 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What the bond sell-off means for monetary policy Rising bond yields are tightening financial conditions which, if sustained, will weigh on economic activity. This has given rise to suggestions that tighter conditions are doing central banks’ job for... 7th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Financial stability concerns won’t derail rate hikes While higher bond yields are creating valuation losses, higher interest rates are lifting banks’ lending margins. What’s more, higher rates are not creating major problems for insurance firms. The... 5th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Upside risks to our interest rate forecasts are growing The data released this week vindicate the Bank of Japan’s concerns about upside risks to inflation and we expect the Bank to keep hiking rates once every quarter. With few signs that higher interest... 2nd October 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Resilience in Gulf credit growth unlikely to last If the Fed hikes interest rates further and oil prices fall back over 2027-28, as we anticipate, the current strength of lending growth in the Gulf is likely to lose steam. That will hold back... 30th September 2026 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update China's targeted stimulus not enough, fiscal push remains key China’s latest stimulus package eschews broad-based easing in favour of targeted measures to support housing demand and bank lending to specific sectors. It is unlikely to have a big impact on its own... 30th September 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Aug. 2026) It seems unlikely that households will continue to fund increases in their real spending by borrowing more and reducing their saving rates, as they did in August, for much longer. And the further fall... 29th September 2026 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Sep. 2026) Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth slowed further to just 1.3% y/y in August. This reflects lingering typhoon disruptions and continued weakness in fiscal spending, with local governments... 28th September 2026 · 1 min read
