Europe Economics Update Euro to weaken further against the US dollar Moves in relative interest rates have contributed to the euro weakening against the US dollar since early May. We think that it will fall to around $1.10 by the end of the year as the Fed hikes twice... 30th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBA Minutes (June 2026) The minutes of the June meeting confirmed that the Board’s decision to leave rates on hold was unanimous. Broadly speaking, however, the minutes revealed that the hold was a hawkish one, with the... 30th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Growth to strengthen even as fiscal strains linger Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to accelerate over the coming years and most of our growth forecasts lie above the consensus. At the same time, the backdrop of low inflation (by the region’s... 29th June 2026 · 19 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook CUSMA uncertainty to slow recovery, delay rate hikes Uncertainty over CUSMA and lower immigration will slow the recovery, with average annual GDP growth a below-consensus 0.5% this year. A return to firmer growth of 1.7% in 2027 should see core price... 29th June 2026 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (June '26) The US-Iran deal will allow the Gulf economies to begin a recovery. But it will take time for oil production and other sectors, such as tourism, to recover to pre-war levels. Most growth forecasts for... 29th June 2026 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook AI boom rolls on, as falling oil prices provide relief Booming exports of AI-related products have helped offset the drag from higher energy prices and should continue to be an important driver of growth in Asia in the near term. The drop in oil prices... 26th June 2026 · 24 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s PPI surprise, Ebola response South Africa’s PPI surprised to the upside this week, but with crude oil back to pre-war prices and domestic harvests strong, we think the SARB rate hiking cycle is nearly done. Elsewhere, the Ebola... 26th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly De la Espriella’s challenges, Copom seeks to clarify The market reaction to Abelardo de la Espriella’s victory in Colombia’s presidential election hasn’t been as buoyant as might have been hoped, which may reflect concerns about the difficulties he will... 26th June 2026 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Inflation and rates to rise by more than consensus expects This week we published our Q3 India Economic Outlook, which contains all of our latest forecasts and analysis of India’s economy and financial markets. The key points of difference between our views... 26th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly MNB resumes easing, CNB minutes, Russian industry The sharp downgrade in the Hungarian central bank’s inflation forecasts suggest that the door is wide open for interest rate cuts. We think inflation won’t be as soft as the central bank projects, but... 26th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA still set to hike, housing tax changes pass Australia’s latest activity and labour market data continue to point to softer momentum, but the CPI figures suggest that underlying inflation pressures have not yet been tamed. Accordingly, we still... 26th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Investment splurge may lift bond yields further The government’s new investment target may well turn out to be smoke and mirrors. But large-scale attempts to influence private investment decisions could result in resource misallocation and lower... 26th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Jun. 2026) 25th June 2026 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook AI boom to power growth and keep core inflation firm The economy is in the middle of an AI-related capex boom and, with some of the prior policy-related headwinds now fading, we expect average annual GDP growth to pick-up to an above-consensus 2.5% next... 25th June 2026 · 17 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Central banks to hike as inflation concerns dominate The RBA has already shifted policy back to restrictive territory and we expect it to tighten settings a bit further, as it seeks to ensure that activity slows sufficiently to bring inflation under... 25th June 2026 · 20 mins read
