UK Economics Update Letter threat an unhelpful distraction for the MPC The threat of having to write a letter to the Chancellor explaining why inflation has moved more than 1% above its target could cause the MPC to focus on the near-term outlook for inflation just when... 26th March 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB highlights weaker growth prospects After leaving interest rates on hold as expected (at a mid-point of 2.75%) the Swiss National Bank stressed that it expects economic activity to slow sharply this year. While strong price pressures... 13th March 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank signals the possibility of a further rate rise The Norges Bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold but signal that it expects to raise interest rates once more this year is likely to lead to a further strengthening of the krone. 13th March 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia: How to tame double-digit inflation Russian inflation has returned with a vengeance. As a result, the Central Bank (CBR) already looks certain to miss its end-year target of 8.5%. But the response of policymakers will be dictated by... 11th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC hamstrung by inflation worries Today’s decision by the Monetary Policy Committee to leave interest rates unchanged supports the view that it will continue to loosen policy at a cautious pace while inflation concerns persist. But... 6th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC’s fears over inflation expectations appear overdone The MPC remains concerned that inflation expectations will fail to drop back later this year even as inflation itself falls. After all, this is exactly what happened last year. Nonetheless, there are... 21st February 2008 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How worried should we all be about Chinese inflation? Chinese inflation is now at its highest in 11 years, and there seems little prospect of it falling much in the next couple of months. This has set alarm bells ringing in countries that have grown... 21st February 2008 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus How worried should we all be about Chinese inflation? Chinese inflation is now at its highest in 11 years, and there seems little prospect of it falling much in the next couple of months. This has set alarm bells ringing in countries that have grown... 21st February 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German pay deal will add to the ECB’s inflation concerns The news that Germany’s largest trade union, IG Metall, has won a 5.2% pay rise over the next 14 months has added to concerns over a build-up in medium-term inflationary pressures. While we think that... 20th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Bond market's inflation fears will fade in time Bond markets appear to have become much more concerned about the inflation outlook in the UK than elsewhere. Nonetheless, with the UK on the cusp of a sharp slowdown in activity, it might not be too... 14th February 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank raises rates to 4.25% The surprise decision by the Swedish Riksbank to raise interest rates from 4.0% to 4.25% today confirmed that it remains concerned about the outlook for inflation. And with its latest interest rate... 13th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How long will inflation worries linger? Concerns over the outlook for UK inflation look set to linger for some months, limiting the pace at which interest rates fall and increasing the risk that the economic slowdown will prove deeper and... 17th January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German wage negotiations not a major threat to inflation Wage negotiations begin in Germany today between employers and the services and public sector unions Ver.di and DBB. The unions’ demands for an 8% pay rise have raised concerns over the buildup of a... 10th January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish inflation to squeeze household spending Spanish CPI inflation surged to 4.3% in December, its highest rate in over 12 years. The widespread system of indexing wage settlements to inflation in Spain should ultimately protect workers’ incomes... 3rd January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Surging oil price won't stop interest rates falling a long way The rise in the oil price close to, and briefly through, the $100 per barrel level has prompted renewed concern over inflation. But the equally worrying implications for activity suggest that the... 3rd January 2008 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Stagflation-lite (Q4 2007) The recent surge in headline inflation in many economies has raised fears of “stagflation” – a combination of rapid price increases and weak or even negative growth in economic activity. But we are... 21st December 2007 · 1 min read
