Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank becoming more hawkish With Norway now on the path to recovery, the Norges Bank has begun to prepare the ground for future interest rate hikes. But while the Bank will probably tighten later this year, we do not expect... 23rd September 2009 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus What’s really happening to Argentine inflation? An alternative measure of Argentine inflation constructed from provincial level data suggests that inflation is actually running at around 11%, well above the current official INDEC figure of 5.9%. 15th September 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Will deficit financing trigger a surge in Russian inflation? There are good reasons to think that monetisation of Russia’s budget deficit will not necessarily lead directly to a pick-up in inflation. But it adds to the downside risks facing the ruble. We expect... 4th September 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB determined to head off deflation threat The latest comments from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) confirm that it will maintain its strong policy stimulus for the foreseeable future, helping to reduce the significant risk of a sustained period... 19th August 2009 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB determined to head off deflation threat The latest comments from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) confirm that it will maintain its strong policy stimulus for the foreseeable future, helping to reduce the significant risk of a sustained period... 19th August 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update QE is working – but not well enough for a strong recovery Yesterday’s Bank of England Inflation Report highlighted a number of reasons why quantitative easing (QE) is having more success than might first appear. However, the big picture is that it is not... 13th August 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Will deflation stall Japan’s recovery? Japan’s renewed slide into deflation does not appear to have prevented the economy from rebounding last quarter – indeed the boost to real incomes may actually have helped. However, there is a growing... 31st July 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will deflation stall Japan’s recovery? Japan’s renewed slide into deflation does not appear to have prevented the economy from rebounding last quarter – indeed the boost to real incomes may actually have helped. However, there is a growing... 31st July 2009 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What’s the story on inflation expectations? Another high-profile investor survey, published today, illustrates market concerns that inflation could surge out of control as a result of the extraordinary fiscal and monetary stimulus now in place... 24th July 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Strong euro to add to near-term deflationary pressures The recent appreciation of the euro is yet to have had an impact on euro-zone import prices, due to the normal lags between these two variables. But it soon will. What’s more, with spare capacity... 21st July 2009 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Wage deflation is the real issue (Q2 2009) The creation of new money by central banks is a sideshow compared to the disinflationary pressures still building in the real world. In particular, the risk that falling wages will trigger a... 7th July 2009 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norwegian interest rates may have troughed Norway’s relatively mild downturn should ensure that the latest 25bp interest rate reduction by the Norges Bank is probably the last in the current cycle. But we still think that the Bank will not... 17th June 2009 · 1 min read
