US Economics Focus The macroeconomic implications of the lower dollar 10th November 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Bond yields to drop back in 2010 as inflation fears fade The recent rise in longer-term government bond yields primarily reflects expectations of higher inflation. These expectations are still relatively low and could climb a little further in the coming... 10th November 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Who is most at risk from deflation? Along with other regions, the euro-zone remains at risk from a prolonged and damaging bout of deflation. But the threat posed by deflation varies considerably between different countries. Spain and... 28th October 2009 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Is there still a serious deflationary threat? With the recovery in the global economy gaining momentum and conditions in many financial markets getting back to normal, the threat of deflation would seem to have receded. We agree that a full-blown... 20th October 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Spare capacity could yet turn inflation negative Inflation is likely to pick up again in the next few months but, further ahead, the huge amount of spare capacity that is building up in the economy will bear down heavily on core price pressures... 13th October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Deflation threat to keep Taiwan rates on prolonged hold With deflation still a lingering threat, interest rates will probably remain at their current low level in Taiwan until well after they start to climb elsewhere in the region. 24th September 2009 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank becoming more hawkish With Norway now on the path to recovery, the Norges Bank has begun to prepare the ground for future interest rate hikes. But while the Bank will probably tighten later this year, we do not expect... 23rd September 2009 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus What’s really happening to Argentine inflation? An alternative measure of Argentine inflation constructed from provincial level data suggests that inflation is actually running at around 11%, well above the current official INDEC figure of 5.9%. 15th September 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Will deficit financing trigger a surge in Russian inflation? There are good reasons to think that monetisation of Russia’s budget deficit will not necessarily lead directly to a pick-up in inflation. But it adds to the downside risks facing the ruble. We expect... 4th September 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB determined to head off deflation threat The latest comments from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) confirm that it will maintain its strong policy stimulus for the foreseeable future, helping to reduce the significant risk of a sustained period... 19th August 2009 · 1 min read
