Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt inflation down, but little chance of rate cut The fall in Egyptian inflation to a seven-month low in May is good news but does not provide sufficient grounds for the central bank to cut its benchmark interest rate on Thursday. 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Banks respond to stimulus call as economy stabilises The May data brought evidence that conditions in China’s economy stopped deteriorating last month and may have moderately improved. With its banks now pumping out loans to willing state-owned... 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (May) Consumer price inflation probably eased only slightly in May, but we expect larger falls to come in the next couple of months. This should reassure policymakers that they can continue to focus on... 8th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Producer Prices (May) & Inf. Attitudes Survey (Q2) May’s producer prices figures confirmed that price pressures at the start of the inflation pipeline have begun to fade again, strengthening the case for thinking that CPI inflation is on course to... 8th June 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Euro crisis clouds the outlook The combination of a deep recession in the euro-zone and the Arab world’s own political turmoil will act as a drag on the region’s economies in the near term. The North African countries are likely to... 7th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB unwilling to do more just yet The European Central Bank (ECB) continued to indicate that it is up to national policymakers to take further actions to address the euro-zone crisis, rather than the Bank itself. 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Inflation concerns subsiding in Latin America In line with our forecast, inflation has eased across most of the region in 2012 as the effects of last year’s food price shock work their way out of the annual comparison. We expect this trend to... 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK remains a safe haven from euro-zone turmoil The threat to the UK from the euro-zone has continued to intensify, with concerns building about the Spanish banking system in recent days. But the UK has so far retained its safe-haven status, with... 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Currencies and equities fall sharply, further falls likely Following a strong start to the year, most Asian currencies and equities fell sharply in May. The main reason is that renewed concerns over the euro-zone’s future brought a return in global risk... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & German Unemployment (May) May’s fall in euro-zone CPI inflation and the drop in the German unemployment rate were rare pieces of good news for the beleaguered euro-zone. But the recent sharp falls in measures of business... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Saudi Arabia’s economy is set to slow this year Our new Saudi Arabian whole-economy activity proxy suggests that GDP grew by around 7% y/y in the first quarter of this year, maintaining the record pace of growth in 2011. However, the combination of... 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt’s elections add to vulnerabilities Early results from the first round of Egypt’s presidential election appear to have polarised society, pitting Islamists against secularists, and revolutionaries against the old guard. The outcome... 28th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Too early to declare victory over core inflation Last week’s figures brought some relief on the inflation front, with core inflation dropping from 2.5% to 2.1%. We would not declare victory over inflation just yet. Nonetheless, with pay growth so... 28th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Growth plans look futile as German activity falls European policymakers focused again last week on the need for growth in the region, with Wednesday’s informal EU summit ending in pledges to speed up structural reforms, strengthen job creation and... 28th May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Falling inflation in Vietnam opens door to further rate cuts Inflation in Vietnam fell in May for the ninth consecutive month, with the y/y rate dropping below 10% for the first time since late 2010. Weaker inflation should provide further support to the dong... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Public Finances (Apr.) Inflation resumed its downward trend in April. The fall gives the MPC a bit more leeway to undertake further quantitative easing to cushion the UK economy from the turmoil in the euro-zone. 22nd May 2012 · 1 min read
