Asia Economics Update Economic growth to remain weak in Vietnam Economic growth in Vietnam in the second quarter of this year remained weak. Easing inflation and looser monetary policy will help, but growth will be held back by ongoing problems in the banking... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jun.) Euro-zone CPI inflation was unchanged in June, but this does not alter our view that it will fall sharply over the coming months and the ECB will cut interest rates at its meeting next week. 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The return of Russian inflation We estimate that planned hikes in Russian utility tariffs next month and again in September will add a total of around 2.0%-pts to headline inflation, pushing it to 6.5% by the end of the year. The... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Weaker Chinese demand starting to weigh on exports There are growing signs that falling commodity prices and weaker demand from China are starting to take their toll on the economies of Latin America. In those countries that are most dependent on... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: further policy easing expected this year The consensus view that the current strength of domestic demand rules out rate cuts in Chile looks to us to be fundamentally misplaced. Instead, in the absence of fresh rises in metals prices... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Lower oil price will not boost euro-zone growth The recent sharp fall in the oil price has prompted us to revise down our euro-zone CPI inflation forecast for this year and next. But this will not prevent the region from falling into a deep... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jun.) June’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey suggested that demand on the high street picked up very strongly in June, probably reflecting the impact of the extended Jubilee holiday. However, we do not... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Encouraging news on core inflation May’s inflation figures should help to strengthen the case for the minority pushing for more QE. Although core inflation rose from 2.1% to 2.2%, this primarily reflected base effects. Our seasonally... 25th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (May) May's slightly larger than expected decline in the official 'core' inflation figure, to 1.8% from 2.1%, provides even greater leeway for the Bank of Canada to refrain from raising interest rates... 22nd June 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Drop back in core inflation likely to be gradual We now expect the annual core CPI inflation rate to decline only modestly this year, from 2.3% in May to slightly below 2.0% by year-end, before falling more markedly next year to 1.5% by end 2013. 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (May) The further fall in inflation in May was a nice surprise given that we and the consensus had expected it to hold broadly steady. We continue to expect inflation to be back below its target before the... 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (May) & Current Account (Q1) Plummeting energy prices and favourable base effects drove headline CPI inflation below the Fed's 2.0% target in May, for the first time in 16 months. The annual rate actually fell to 1.7%, from 2.3%... 14th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian inflation rises but Reserve Bank still likely to cut rates Despite a rise in headline inflation in May, we think the Reserve Bank of India is likely to cut the repo rate by 25bp at its rate-setting meeting on Monday. The underlying inflation rate has not... 14th June 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Banks in the Gulf are well placed to weather the storm One of the main channels through which the euro-zone debt crisis could affect the oil-rich Gulf economies is via a drop in foreign capital inflows due to heightened global risk aversion. In particular... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation falling in Eastern Europe Headline inflation fell pretty much everywhere in Emerging Europe in May on the back of easing food and energy inflation. Moreover, with the possible exception of Turkey, underlying price pressures... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation to fall further as euro-zone crisis deepens Headline inflation has dropped this year in most major economies and is likely to come down further as global growth falters, the euro-zone crisis deepens and commodity prices continue to fall. We... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
