Africa Economics Update South Africa: solid but unspectacular outlook for retailers Amid the recent sharp contractions in output from South Africa’s manufacturing and mining sectors, the better-than-expected performance from the retail sector comes as welcome news. But given that... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is retailers’ pricing power starting to strengthen? The sharp rise in core inflation in June reported by today’s official consumer prices figures contrastswith timelier survey evidence suggesting that discounting on the high street has been... 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jun.) While consumer price inflation rose quite sharply in June, there remain compellingreasons to expect it to ease further over the second half of 2014. 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ still likely to extend QQE despite upbeat inflation forecasts It came as no surprise that the BoJ left policy settings unchanged today and presented upbeat inflation forecasts, but we still think more easing will be announced in October. 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Can the economy withstand higher interest rates? The recovery should maintain its strong paceeven though interest rates look set to risefrom the record low level soon. The MonetaryPolicy Committee (MPC) is unlikely to beunder pressure from inflation... 14th July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Slowing Indian inflation brings rate cuts back onto table Inflation in India appears finally to be edging in the right direction, making it increasingly likely that the Reserve Bank (RBI) will cut interest rates sooner than most currently anticipate. 14th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Too soon to declare victory on inflation Japanese GDP surely contracted in the second quarter in the wake of April’s consumption tax hike, but the latest survey evidence suggests that a recovery is already underway. In the meantime the Bank... 14th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Getting back to normal Global growth is likely to accelerate a bit during the coming two years while inflation and interest rates should generally remain very low. The US and UK are set for a period of fairly rapid growth... 11th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (May) & Consumer Confidence (Jun.) Machinery orders were far weaker than expected in May. But some pullback was always on the cards in Q2 and the latest figures shouldn't derail hopes that shrinking spare capacity will underpin renewed... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Core inflation will continue to rise The recent rise in core inflation is not just “noise” as Janet Yellen suggested and instead a large partof it is linked to a decline in the amount of spare capacity in a number of different sectors... 9th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil Election Watch - Election remains Dilma's to lose The latest opinion polls suggest that October’s election remains President Rousseff’s to lose. But although support for her has edged up in the latest polls, following a sharp fall earlier this year... 9th July 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun.) Consumer price inflation edged down in June on the back of a slight easing in food inflation. This fall should prove short-lived given that pork prices look set to pick-up in coming months. More... 9th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish price pressures weak, but don't point to outright deflation Recent concerns about the risk of deflation in Poland have prompted the National Bank to raise the possibility of a cut in interest rates later in the year. As it happens, most indicators of... 8th July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook As good as it gets? While the European economic recovery probably picked up a bit of speed in the second quarter of the year, there are growing signs that Q2 was as good as it is likely to get. Activity indicators in the... 8th July 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jul.) Inflation looks to have stabilised for now but pork prices are likely to drive it higherduring the second half of the year. Producer price inflation is also set to pick up incoming months on the back... 7th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Energy costs to remain high despite nuclear restart A reshuffle at the nuclear energy watchdog has paved the way for the restart of atomic reactors in Japan. But the economic benefits of this change should not be overplayed. Only around a third of the... 7th July 2014 · 1 min read
