China Economics Update What does the anti-corruption campaign mean for the economy? China’s anti-corruption campaign has claimed its biggest scalp to date with today’s formal announcement of an investigation into former Standing Committee member Zhou Yongkang. Over the past 18 months... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Signs of recovery in North Africa Following a difficult few years, the latest data have provided further evidence that things are improving in North Africa. It looks like growth in both Tunisia and Egypt accelerated over the first... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Widening trade deficit due to strong domestic demand Although the trade deficit has widened in recent months, the increase is largely due to the strength of imports rather than the weakness of exports. Our calculations suggest that exports increased at... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Jul.) While the renewed improvement in small business confidence in July lifted the index well above its long-term average, the survey still points to sluggish industrial output. 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Inflation likely to peak before end of this year The recent pick-up in inflation has led some people to question the Bank of Canada's neutral stance on interest rates, but we think these concerns are misplaced. The recent increase in headline... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Surprise Russia rate hike a response to geopolitics not inflation Russia’s central bank justified its surprise decision to hike interest rates this morning on stubbornly high inflation, but it’s pretty clear that this is a pre-emptive move to limit capital outflows... 25th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Argentina teeters on the brink of another default With talks between Buenos Aires and holdout bondholders seemingly having stalled, it appears increasingly likely that Argentina will be prevented from making an interest payment that is due on... 25th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (national: Jun.; Tokyo: Jul.) The dip in nationwide inflation in June and the second consecutive fall in the capital region in July suggest that the impact of the sales tax hike has started to fade. We expect core inflation excl... 25th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fall in agricultural prices to help keep EM inflation muted Inflation across the EM world remains relatively low in aggregate terms, even if it is still worryingly high in a handful of countries. Looking ahead, with global food prices falling, and underlying... 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African inflation to remain above target until 2015 South African inflation remained stable in June, but is probably set to rise in the near term, and is unlikely to fall back within the SARB’s target range until early 2015. This should be enough to... 23rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update First signs that Brazil inflation may be close to peaking Data to the middle of this month suggest that inflation in Brazil is likely to breach the upper bound of its target range for July as a whole but, with the pace of monthly price rises now slowing... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The softer tone of June’s consumer price figures does little to change our view that core inflation will rise faster than the Fed expects. There is still plenty of evidence that the decline in spare... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Business investment rebounds The weakness of business investment over the past couple of years has been disconcerting, but arange of indicators point to a much stronger showing in the second quarter while, more generally, rising... 21st July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The further rise in headline inflation in June, which is largely due to higher food prices, is unlikely to worry the Bank of Canada. Although most measures of underlying inflation also nudged higher... 18th July 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt hikes interest rates as inflation looks set to rise sharply The Egyptian central bank’s surprise decision to hike interest rates today appears to have been in anticipation of a sharp rise in inflation over the coming months. This follows the government’s... 17th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian interest rates on hold until after elections Policymakers at the Brazilian central bank (BCB) left interest rates unchanged at 11.0% last night and we do not foresee any rate hikes until after October’s presidential election. But with high... 17th July 2014 · 1 min read
