Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Feb.) & Unemployment (Jan.) February’s continued fall in euro-zone consumer prices and the still-high rate of unemployment in January confirm that the ECB faces an uphill battle against the threat of deflation. 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Struggling to cope with commodity collapse The plunge in the prices of the key commodity exports of both Australia and New Zealand late last year will soon filter through into weaker domestic activity, resulting in GDP growth this year slowing... 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update 10 key calls on Australia and New Zealand Our full analysis of the prospects for the Australian and New Zealand economies is contained in ourAustralia & New Zealand Economic Outlook (sent to clients today), but in this note we highlight ten... 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What to watch at the National People’s Congress The unveiling of a new, lower GDP growth target at the National People’s Congress would be an encouraging sign that the government is facing up to the continued slowdown in China’s sustainable rate of... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German, Italian & Spanish Flash CPI (Feb.) February’s energy-related increases in inflation in Germany, Spain and Italy did little to reduce the threat of a prolonged bout of deflation in future. Headline rates remain either extremely low or... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Falling energy prices push many EMs into deflation Concerns over deflation have started to resurface across the emerging world. But the latest deceleration in inflation has been driven by last year’s plunge in oil prices. Accordingly, we continue to... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Delay to Nigeria’s election puts naira under pressure The delay to Nigeria’s election and the controversy over the alleged misappropriation of oil revenues have cast the spotlight on the country’s weak governance. After the decision to delay the election... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Unemployment, Household Spending & Consumer Prices (Jan.) Industrial output surged last month and the job market remains tight despite a jump in the unemployment rate. However, consumer spending is sluggish and the ongoing slowdown in inflation increases the... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Brief deflation won't hold up the Fed Although the CPI inflation rate dipped into negative territory in January, this bout of deflation is likely to be brief and it won't prevent the Fed from beginning to raise its policy rate from near... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to maintain a hard line on Greece The ECB is unlikely to announce any new policies after its meeting next week as it prepares to implement the quantitative easing programme unveiled in January. President Draghi will claim that QE is... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The decline in the headline CPI inflation rate to only 1.0% in January, from 1.5%, was entirely due gasoline prices, which fell by 26.9% over the past year. Excluding food, energy and other volatile... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Durable Goods Orders (Jan.) The 0.7% m/m decline in consumer prices in January was entirely due to a massive 18.7% m/m fall in gasoline prices. As a result, the annual rate of inflation fell to -0.1%, which is technically a... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan interest rates held, but will rise within 12 months The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 8.50% today, but we think that currency weakness and the return of inflationary pressures will prompt the bank to raise... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch How negative can interest rates go? Sweden’s Riksbank cut interest rates into negative territory this month, following in the footsteps of the Danish and Swiss central banks and the ECB. Although central bankers are instinctively... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Feb.) February’s EC business and consumer surveys are consistent with slow and steady growth. But even if this can be sustained as the Greek crisis continues, it will do little to erode the spare capacity... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Inflation pressures easing across the MENA region The past month has brought further evidence that inflation is slowing across the MENA region. In Saudi Arabia, inflation now stands at its lowest rate in more than eight years, while price pressures... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
