Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Feb.) Mexican inflation edged down to 3.0% y/y in February and there is still little evidence to suggest that a weaker peso is feeding through to higher inflation. Inflation should remain close to the... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Start of ECB QE won’t herald strong recovery As the ECB’s quantitative easing programme starts today, it already seems to be having a more positive impact than we had envisaged. But here we explain why we maintain our view that the policy will... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Jan.) & Czech CPI (Feb.) The 2.2% y/y fall in Turkish industrial production in January was distorted a little by base effects, but even so the data highlight the extent to which the economy is struggling. The consensus view... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Can the RBI meet its new inflation targets? Forthcoming consumer price inflation data for February should show that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) remains on course to meet its target for the start of 2016, which has now been formalised under... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Bucking the global trend…for now The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is odds on to buck the recent global trend by leaving its cash rate on hold at 3.5% in the announcement scheduled for Thursday 12th March. But if we are right in... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s hopes unlikely to be met President Draghi was sounding rather smug last week as he announced the start of the Bank’s quantitative easing programme and forecast that inflation would rise back to target in the medium term. But... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Feb.) Brazilian inflation surged to its highest annual rate in a decade last month and the relentless increase, coupled with the recent sell-off in the real, bolsters the case for interest rate hikes to... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update February bounce in inflation likely to be short-lived After a bounce in February, inflation in China looks likely to drift lower in coming months – but remain positive, we think – before rebounding in the second half of the year. 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Feb.) Russian inflation continued to accelerate in February, rising to its fastest pace, at 16.7% y/y, in more than a decade. We think inflation is close to peaking, but the big picture is that it’s likely... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC waiting to be sure deflation will not linger The MPC’s decision to stand pat today – marking the 6 th anniversary of interest rates at their record low of 0.5% – looks set to repeated over the next few months while inflation hovers near zero... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Consumers beginning to spend their oil windfall Household spending has picked up sharply in response to the collapse in oil prices. In January, the growth rate of underlying retail sales in advanced economies reached its highest level since 2006... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines CPI (Feb.) Consumer price inflation in the Philippines picked up slightly in February, but remains comfortably towards the lower end of the central bank’s (BSP) target range. Although we expect inflation to rise... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia unlikely to join the rate-cutting club Despite a recent drop in inflation, the Malaysian central bank (BNM) kept its policy rate on hold at 3.25% today. While several central banks in the region have eased monetary policy this year, we... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Misery index on track for 50-year low Households are considerably better off than they were just a year or two ago. Indeed, the so-called “misery index” – a sum of the prevailing inflation and unemployment rates – has halved over the last... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflationary pressures remain intense Although headline consumer price inflation rose from -0.6% to -0.3% in February, this was driven entirely by a rise in energy prices as oil prices reversed some of their recent falls. Core inflation... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Feb.) The rise in Turkish inflation last month, to 7.5% y/y, was probably temporary and we think the headline rate should edge down over the coming months. But the bigger picture is that Turkish price... 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
