Europe Economics Update Is a housing bubble inflating again in Ireland? Comments from the outgoing governor of Ireland’s central bank that he “knows” that there won’t be another housing bubble smack of hubris. While there does not appear to be a bubble in the housing... 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will underlying inflation continue to rise? We believe that the recent strength in the Bank of Japan’s new core inflation measure reflects the lagged pass-through to prices of the weaker yen rather than a pick-up in domestic price pressures... 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Deficit-funded spending plan unlikely to concern investors Canada’s new Federal Finance Minister has indicated that the government will forge ahead with its deficit-funded spending plan in an effort to support a flagging economy. Even if that means running... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Corporate balance sheets appear healthy The rise in credit spreads this year has been interpreted by some as a signal that the corporate sector is dangerously over-leveraged. At an aggregate level we can find very little evidence of this... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation to rise more gradually in the UK than US The release of the UK and US inflation figures last week provided a reminder of why the MPC is likely to raise interest rates later than the US Fed. Inflation rates in both economies will pick up... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) & Retail Sales (Sep.) The annual headline inflation rate was unchanged at 1.0% in October but will soon rise sharply, as the drag from lower gasoline prices fades. Meanwhile, core inflation will stay close to 2.0% as the... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier markets scramble as Fed hike approaches Central banks across the world’s frontier markets are preparing themselves as the US Federal Reserve finally moves toward its first rate hike in nine years. Central bankers in Angola, Ghana, Zambia... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Paris tragedy will have limited economic effects It goes without saying that the loss of life and the social impact of the Paris attacks dwarf any consideration of their economic consequences. But we doubt that the near-term economic impact will be... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth may soon pick-up If the recent improvement in Australia’s labour market is sustained, then wage growth will soon accelerate from its current 17-year low. An increase in productivity growth at the same time would keep... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Crisis or recovery? Concerns about the outlook for emerging markets look increasingly overdone. Pockets of vulnerability exist, but in our view EM growth is more likely to recover over the next 3-6 months than it is to... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Underlying household spending remains strong The underlying picture for household spending remains positive. Real household spending in Q3 looks likely to have grown by around 0.8% q/q, the rate seen in Q1 and Q2. And while retail sales volumes... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Slow, painful tightening cycle to continue The SARB’s decision to hike its key interest rate from 6.00% to 6.25% showed that the Bank is alarmed at the prospect of persistently high inflation in the context of disappointing growth. The... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Commodity price slump produces mixed policy response The slump in commodity prices over the past year has meant central banks in net commodity exporting and importing countries have continued to follow different paths. Despite the hit to growth from... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Nov.) The latest rise in Brazilian inflation, to a 12-year high of 10.3% y/y in the first half of this month, was due to a combination of a rise in food inflation, which appears to be due to a weaker real... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What’s behind the pick-up in core inflation? While media headlines have focused on low energy prices and the risks of deflation, core inflation has actually risen in most advanced economies in recent months. However, it has done so for very... 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Oct.) South African inflation accelerated to 4.7% y/y in October in what we believe is the beginning of a sharp inflationary spike. While tomorrow’s rate decision will be close, we expect that the SARB will... 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
