India Economics Update Public sector pay rise to pose another inflation risk Inflation is likely to have accelerated in November, as last year’s slump in global oil prices begins to drop out of the annual comparison. Looking ahead, the Pay Commission’s recommendation for a... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Broad price pressures set to rise Despite widespread concerns about deflation, consumer price inflation has remained within a narrow (positive) range over the course of this year. With credit growth rebounding and wage growth... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Nov.) & IMACEC (Oct.) The further fall in Chilean inflation in November is an encouraging sign that price pressures in the economy are easing. While this reduces the likelihood of the central bank hiking interest rates... 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Interest rate hikes tied to pace of inflation rebound Last week Chair Janet Yellen all but confirmed that the Fed will begin to raise interest rates from near-zero at the upcoming FOMC meeting, which ends on 16 th December. Any final doubts should have... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Mariodona shoots wide The ECB’s failure to live up to its own hype at December’s Governing Council meeting looks likely to have at least some negative consequences, both on the economic outlook via the market response and... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Nov.) With households the most upbeat since late 2013, the prospects for consumer spending look fairly bright. 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery regaining pace, but looking unbalanced The UK economy appears to be regaining a little momentum, but the nature of the recovery is looking quite unbalanced. The breakdown of Q3’s 0.5% quarterly rise in real GDP showed solid growth in... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Nov.) The jump in Turkish inflation to a much higher than expected 8.1% y/y in November reinforces our view that the central bank will be forced to hike interest rates over the coming months. 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Tentative signs of Q4 growth pick-up After the further slowdown in euro-zone GDP growth in the third quarter, more timely survey indicators such as the composite PMI have offered tentative evidence of a renewed acceleration in Q4... 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) November’s weaker-than-expected euro-zone consumer prices figures gave a final green light for the ECB to announce much-needed additional monetary policy stimulus at tomorrow’s Governing Council... 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Higher debt interest payments could scupper Osborne’s plans Although the Chancellor is probably still running high from last week’s surprise windfall from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) at the Autumn Statement, he should be wary. There are various... 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Russia to surface from recession, but recovery weak Having contracted in 2015, we expect the economy of Emerging Europe to return to growth in 2016. This will be driven in large part by an improvement in conditions in the region’s largest economy... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI holds rates, loosening cycle now at an end The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its repo rate on hold at 6.75% today and, rather than just being on pause, we maintain our view that the loosening cycle is now at an end. 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Indonesia CPI (Nov.) Consumer price inflation in Indonesia dropped back sharply in November as the impact of last year’s hike in subsidised fuel prices dropped out of the annual comparison. Looking ahead, inflation looks... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Nov.) November’s small rise in German HICP inflation appears to have reflected energy effects. With the core rate still very subdued, there is nothing here to put the ECB off increasing its policy support... 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
