India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Sep.) Indian wholesale price inflation edged down in September, but we expect it to resume accelerating over the coming months. The big picture is that there is still little room for further policy... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep.) Consumer price inflation rebounded last month but remains at a comfortable level. Meanwhile, producer price inflation returned to positive territory for the first time in over four years. 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The fall in India’s consumer price inflation rate last month is likely to fuel talk of further rate cuts. However, if the RBI pulls the trigger and loosens policy again, it could ultimately backfire... 13th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fallout from higher oil prices (mostly) good news The recovery in oil prices is a mixed blessing for global growth. We estimate that the contribution of energy costs to annual CPI inflation in the advanced economies will flip from an average of minus... 11th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Rising political risks threaten growth outlook The European economy appears to have weathered the initial impact of the UK’s vote to leave the European Union reasonably well. However, the vote could yet have important indirect effects by fuelling... 11th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The RBA, inflation and November The inflation figures for the third quarter would need to be much weaker than the Reserve Bank of Australia expects in order to prompt a cut in interest rates to 1.25% at November’s policy meeting... 11th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Sep.) Egyptian inflation dipped to 14.1% y/y in September, but this is unlikely to mark the start of a downward trend. Policymakers are edging to closer to an IMF deal, so a fresh devaluation of the pound... 10th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Slowdown in services inflation highlights failure of QQE Recent data suggest that the economic recovery may be a touch stronger than we had been expecting. However, there are no signs that the tight labour market is fuelling price pressures. While the Bank... 10th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Sep.) The increase in Mexican inflation in September, to 3.0% y/y from 2.7% y/y in August, means that headline CPI is now at the central bank’s target and leaves it on track to move above target over the... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Sep.) The bigger-than-expected drop in Brazilian inflation in September should be enough to seal the deal on an interest rate cut at this month’s COPOM meeting. 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Why is services inflation slowing? While the collapse in energy prices over the past two years explains some of the recent decline in services inflation, we suspect that it mostly reflects the sluggish state of consumer spending... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Aug.) Wage growth slowed in August as the bonus payments slumped after the end of the summer bonus season. While growth in hourly wages remains strong, we expect it to fall again in coming months. 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Recovery to grind on Economies across the emerging world have strengthened so far this year and we expect further improvements in the months ahead. But growth is likely to peak in 2017 at rates far below the averages of... 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Food prices drive inflation rebound Headline inflation likely rose last month on the back of a pick-up in food prices. But after a near-term rise, we expect price pressures to ease again further ahead. 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why Turkey’s economy will struggle The hit to Turkey’s economy from July’s military coup attempt is likely to be short-lived, but even once the impact dissipates, the economy’s large vulnerabilities mean activity will remain sluggish... 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Dovish RBI risks stoking inflation pressures Consumer price inflation probably eased in September, which may bolster the more dovish position the RBI adopted at its policy meeting this week. But a looser monetary stance is likely to add to... 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
