Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The mixed and messy labour market While the Reserve Bank of Australia would do well to ignore the recent falls in employment, it will be getting more concerned that the rising share of employees working part-time will keep wage growth... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep.) September's slightly weaker-than-expected inflation figure supports our view that the SARB will hold its key policy rate unchanged at 7.00% over the coming quarters rather than hiking rates. 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Is the sell-off in UK government bonds overdone? While the pound continues to be the main casualty of the vote to leave the EU, UK government bonds have come under pressure recently. Indeed, the yield on 10-year government bonds has risenby around... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is the MPC going soft on inflation? Apparent concerns in the bond market that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has gone soft on inflation look overdone. We expect the forthcoming rise in inflation to be transitory. But if it isn’t... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) Although headline CPI inflation increased to a two-year high of 1.5% in September, the more modest gain in core consumer prices suggests that underlying price pressures are building only very... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan well placed to cope with higher energy prices Japan’s economy has become less reliant on imported energy in recent years as electricity consumption has fallen sharply. With consumers having stepped up savings over the past two years, the country... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Sep.) The rise in CPI inflation in September – to its highest level in almost two years – is likely to fuel market concerns about the upward impact of the pound’s fall on prices. However, we don’t think... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q3) The fall in CPI inflation to 0.2% in the third quarter from 0.4% in the second quarter is in line with the RBNZ’s forecast and means the Bank will follow through on its suggestion that interest rates... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Policy divergences to favour Swedish krona The Nordic and Swiss economies’ reasonable economic performance, low public debt and stable political backdrop should help to maintain their safe haven status. But there will be some marked economic... 17th October 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Cautious SNB won’t hike rates for some time yet Fears that domestic price pressures might prompt the Swiss National Bank to tighten monetary policy proved unfounded today as it left its interest rate target at 0.25%. The Bank’s tone was gloomier... 16th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: A second Scottish independence referendum? Another dramatic week in the Brexit saga saw the pound fall further, bond yields rise, the chance of another Scottish independence referendum before long build and Marmite almost get pulled off the... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rising labour participation a dilemma for the Fed The marked slowdown in the rate at which the remaining slack in the labour market is being absorbed poses a big dilemma for the Fed. The standard unemployment rate has now been broadly unchanged at 5... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Sep.) The 0.6% m/m increase in September retail sales was largely due to a rebound in motor vehicle sales, with underlying sales growth now at a three-year low. Real consumption growth was still between 2.5... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How far will the pound’s fall lift inflation? The further fall in sterling over the past week or so will add to the inflationary pressures already set to build over the next few years. The drop in the exchange rate will have both direct and... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: Interest rates to rise by more than most expect The Peruvian central bank’s decision to keep interest rates on hold at 4.25% didn’t come as a surprise, but we expect a pick-up in inflation next year to trigger more rate hikes than the consensus... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Weathering the Brexit storm The evidence so far has supported our view that the immediate economic impact of the vote to leave the EU would not be as severe as most had expected. And although there are many challenges ahead –... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
