Latin America Chart Pack Slowdown underway Latin American economies held up well in early part of this year, helped by the surge in commodity prices brought about by the war in Ukraine. But there are signs that activity is now weakening... 27th July 2022 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (June) Bank lending growth accelerated further in June, but lenders expect the demand for loans to slow sharply in the coming months, adding to the reasons to expect the economy to fall into recession... 27th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q2 2022) While inflation picked up in Q2, it wasn’t as strong as we had expected. That suggests that the RBA may opt for another 50bp rate hike at next week’s meeting rather than the 75bp we had been... 27th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Weaker new home sales to drag down construction The extent of the downturn in the housing market and broader residential investment will determine whether the economy enters a recession in the next 12 months, and in that respect there has been some... 26th July 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM risks building as global backdrop worsens EM GDP growth will be weaker than most expect in 2022 and 2023 as China’s economy rebounds only moderately and activity slows elsewhere. Inflation is set to remain elevated for some time yet, and... 26th July 2022 · 28 mins read
Global Economics Update The natural gas crisis and the global economy The news today that Gazprom will further reduce its natural gas supply to Europe increases the likelihood of recessions in the euro-zone, UK and parts of Emerging Europe. It also supports our view... 26th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Debt problems come to the fore Sub-Saharan African economies are suffering heavily from the spillovers from Fed tightening and the war in Ukraine. Policy in the region is likely to tighten further as a result, weighing on growth... 26th July 2022 · 24 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Growth to slow in the second half of the year GDP figures for Korea released earlier today showed economic growth accelerated in the second quarter thanks to a strong rebound in private consumption as the economy enjoyed a reopening bounce. This... 26th July 2022 · 14 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (July 2022) The drop in inflation in Brazil to 11.4% y/y in the first half of July provides the first clear sign that inflation has passed its peak and is now on a downwards path. But even so, with the headline... 26th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Central banks may yet put more upward pressure on bond yields We expect elevated inflation to keep developed market (DM) central banks hiking rates aggressively this year, even as economies slow sharply, in some cases falling into recession. Accordingly, we... 25th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jul.) The further decline in the German Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in July adds to the evidence that the German economy is on the brink of a recession as high energy prices and worries about energy... 25th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Inflation finally peaks CPI inflation has finally peaked but this will not be enough to prevent further large interest rate hikes from the Bank of Canada, especially as there is little evidence yet that the weakening housing... 22nd July 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Recessions knocking at the door Another month, another set of downbeat PMIs for advanced economies. The demand indicators weakened markedly in the US and the euro-zone for the second month in a row, crossing over into recessionary... 22nd July 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Looser fiscal/tighter monetary mix whoever is the Prime Minister If members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) had hoped that this week's data releases would provide a clear steer on whether to follow other major central banks and raise interest rates by at... 22nd July 2022 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to hike by 75bp despite weak GDP growth Fed officials may have briefly contemplated an even bigger hike following the news of the further surge in inflation in June but, with inflation expectations dropping back and the incoming news on... 22nd July 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Debt risks and IMF deals, hawks gain ground Recently approved IMF financing will ease near-term balance of payment pressures in Tanzania and Kenya, but the Fund’s push to tighten fiscal policy will weigh on recoveries. Meanwhile, this week’s... 22nd July 2022 · 5 mins read
