Japan Data Response Activity, Labour Market & Tokyo CPI (June 22) While industrial output bounced back strongly in June, the recovery in the labour market is stalling and consumer spending is faltering. One reason is that rising consumer prices are weighing on... 29th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily This is (probably) not the Powell pivot markets are looking for Financial markets have taken the combination of yesterday’s FOMC’s announcement and today’s negative US GDP print as confirmation that policymakers will ease off their aggressive monetary tightening... 28th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Loonie unlikely to have big bearing on policy outlook Governor Tiff Macklem has voiced concern about the inflationary impact of the loonie, but we doubt that a modest fall would prevent the Bank of Canada from pausing its tightening before the Federal... 28th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Your questions about the Global Economic Outlook We held an online Drop-In event yesterday to discuss our Q3 Global Economic Outlook and the forecasts within it (see an on-demand recording here). This Update addresses several of the client questions... 28th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (July) The increase in German inflation to 8.5% in July was higher than most anticipated and suggests that euro-zone inflation will also come in above expectations tomorrow. This will support what we assume... 28th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Growth outlook darkens The economic outlook has deteriorated across the region. Inflation is soaring and monetary conditions are tightening, which is weighing on households’ real incomes and spending power. The latest... 28th July 2022 · 11 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Jul.) The bigger-than-expected decline in the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator in July adds to a growing list of indicators pointing to activity slowing markedly in July. With the region’s gas supply now... 28th July 2022 · 2 mins read
BoE Watch Stepping up the fight We expect the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to step up its fight against high inflation at its meeting on Thursday 4 th August by raising interest rates by 50 basis points (bps), from 1.25% to 1.75%... 28th July 2022 · 9 mins read
RBI Watch Frontloaded tightening to continue We expect the MPC to continue frontloading policy tightening with another 50bp hike to the repo rate (to 5.40%) at the conclusion of its upcoming meeting on 5 th August. Beyond next week, we think the... 28th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden GDP Indicator (Jun. & Q2) The 1.4% q/q increase in Swedish GDP in Q2 poses upside risks to our below-consensus forecast for GDP growth in 2022. But with a recession on the cards in late 2022 and early 2023, activity is... 28th July 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economic Outlook Reopening rebound set to slow Activity has bounced back from lockdowns but China’s economic recovery will become more challenging from here on as exports turn from tailwind to headwind and the property downturn deepens. Policy... 28th July 2022 · 22 mins read
China Chart Pack Housing crisis flares up again The mortgage boycotts are a double threat to developers and to the housing market. They have drawn attention to the problem of cash-strapped developers being unable to complete properties that they... 27th July 2022 · 11 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Nigeria’s economic woes mount For a major net oil exporter, Nigeria’s worsening economic struggles in the current high oil price environment are striking. Low oil production, which was 30% below the country’s OPEC+ quota in June... 27th July 2022 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily For EM financial markets, bad news is just bad news We expect weak global growth to keep the pressure on EM sovereign bonds over the rest of 2022, and think that most EM currencies will weaken against the US dollar over this period. 27th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Europe’s energy crisis: the impact on Russia & CEE The decision by Gazprom to cut natural gas supplies to Europe to 20% of capacity has caused gas prices to surge and raised the risk of energy shortages during the winter. A full gas cut-off would... 27th July 2022 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Jul.) While the deterioration in the survey data and renewed inversion of the Treasury yield curve imply that the risks are rising, our composite models suggest that the economy is still more likely than... 27th July 2022 · 4 mins read
