FX Markets Update 2024-style carry trade unwind still appears unlikely While carry trade positioning appears to have increased over the past couple of years, we doubt the recent yen intervention alone will trigger a carry trade unwind and a rapid yen appreciation along... 5th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Focus How worried should investors be about Takaichi’s policies? While PM Takaichi intends to abandon “excessive austerity” and is trying to steer the BoJ in a more dovish direction, we don’t believe that her policies pose a major risk for Japan’s economic outlook... 5th August 2026 · 17 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the dollar’s recent drop We think the US dollar’s recent setbacks will prove temporary. But that view relies on continued US economic and equity market exceptionalism outweighing renewed uncertainty around the Fed and US... 4th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily FX intervention, US-Iran pause (again), & US payrolls US economic policy has taken a strange turn but we think the underlying dynamism of the US economy and stock market will win out in the coming months. Events in the Strait of Hormuz continue to be... 3rd August 2026 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update Sixth(!) time the charm for the yen? Intervention in support of the yen may not work any better now than it has previously, but the persistence of the Japanese authorities suggests to us that the yen will remain around the 160 level this... 31st July 2026 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am FX outperformance unlikely to last Currencies in Latin American have fared better than those of other EMs over July, but we expect that outperformance to reverse, with currencies depreciating against the dollar over the next 12-18... 30th July 2026 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (July 26) At around 3.2% y/y, China’s growth in Q2 was over 1%-pt weaker than official figures suggest. But growth has held steady in the face of the Iran war. Exports have continued to surge, largely driven by... 30th July 2026 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily We really need to talk about Kevin now Market participants gave Fed Chair Warsh’s second press conference two thumbs down. If he is serious about taking guidance from market prices rather than dishing it out, a course correction is in... 30th July 2026 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update The renminbi could not rebalance China on its own A significant appreciation of the renminbi would narrow China’s enormous trade surplus but it would also make the domestic deflation problem worse. This trade-off can only be addressed if a stronger... 30th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Jul. 2026) Our proprietary EM financial risk indicators show that the majority of EMs have been well placed to weather the effects of the energy shock. Our aggregate EM currency crisis risk indicator remains... 30th July 2026 · 8 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jul. 26) Economic growth in the region has been resilient in the face of the energy shock, and we think growth will accelerate from here. Although inflation rose last month, most central banks will be able to... 29th July 2026 · 0 mins read
FX Markets Focus Korean won and Taiwanese dollar may rally if AI bubble bursts The ongoing AI boom has not translated into stronger currencies in Korea and Taiwan, despite surging semiconductor exports and, notwithstanding the recent selloff, major rallies in their equity... 28th July 2026 · 20 mins read
India Economics Update Why GIFT City matters for foreign investors India’s policymakers have long-desired more financial activity linked to the economy to take place onshore. But they remain reluctant to quickly and fully open the capital account, with recent bouts... 23rd July 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Tinubu enters 2027 polls with a solid economic record Nigeria’s president, Bola Tinubu, will head into the elections in six months’ time at the helm of an economy with a stronger external position, a more credible central bank and some modest fiscal... 22nd July 2026 · 4 mins read
Equities Update Foreigners’ voracious appetite for US equities is another red flag A surge in foreign buying of US equities could be another sign of trouble ahead for the S&P 500. After all, smaller surges also took place before the dotcom bubble burst; the GFC; and 2022’s drawdown... 22nd July 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Jul. 26) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth seems to have accelerated after the start of the Iran War and there are early signs that... 22nd July 2026 · 1 min read
