DM Markets Chart Pack High-grade bond yields plunge to record lows The 10-year US Treasury yield fell by more than 35bp in May, hitting a record low of less than 1.6% as investors sought refuge in high-grade government bonds. The main trigger for the rally was a... 1st June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook UK markets still underestimate euro-zone risks The euro-zone debt crisis has already had a significant impact on UK markets. Even so, we doubt that markets have fully priced in the likely economic effects that would stem from the partial breakup... 1st June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Currencies and equities fall sharply, further falls likely Following a strong start to the year, most Asian currencies and equities fell sharply in May. The main reason is that renewed concerns over the euro-zone’s future brought a return in global risk... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Is Argentina headed for a fresh currency crisis? Argentina’s ample foreign reserves and tight capital controls mean that the government will not be forced into allowing the peso to devalue sharply in the near-term. That said, the current managed... 30th May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are historical monetary break-ups relevant to the euro-zone? The break-up of the euro-zone would be an unprecedented event because the euro itself is unique. But there are still some useful lessons to be learnt from previous monetary splits. 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand dollar rally unlikely to last The New Zealand dollar has been one of Asia’s worst-hit currencies since fears of a euro-zone breakup escalated. The currency has regained some ground in recent days and most analysts expect it to... 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack From currency war to currency rout Financial markets across the whole of Latin America have been hammered over the past month by a euro-zone related flight to safety but amid the sell-off the collapse in the Brazilian real stands out... 25th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The euro has yet to price in a break-up Even after the recent falls, the euro exchange rate does not appear to incorporate a significant “break-up premium”. As such, we see scope for further considerable declines as the crisis continues. 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can Greece survive outside the euro-zone? Many commentators argue that even though Greece might benefit from leaving the euro-zone in the long run, an immediate exit would result in the Government running out of money with potentially... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Weak zloty a cause for concern, but shouldn’t justify rate hikes The recent sell-off in the zloty will make it harder for the Polish government to keep public debt from breaching constitutionally mandated ceilings. In the extreme, policymakers face the risk of... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Forint slump to trigger renewed talk of IMF deal The latest slump in the Hungarian forint has taken the currency to below 300/€ – the rate that, on past form at least, has triggered a response from the authorities. This time around, the response... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The consequences of a euro-zone break-up Markets have come around to our long-held view that some form of euro-zone break-up is likely, but opinion remains divided on the likely economic and financial fall-out. While even a limited and well... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Emerging Europe’s currencies caught in the crossfire The growing risk of Greece leaving the euro-zone has taken a heavy toll on Emerging Europe’s currencies. Most are now back at their lows seen in the autumn of last year. Looking ahead, there is... 18th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America currencies battered by flight to safety Renewed fears about the future of the euro-zone have sparked a retreat from all risky assets in recent days, and Latin American currencies have been no exception. For now, the risks remain skewed to... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Will the Reserve Bank‘s support for the rupee succeed? We doubt that the Reserve Bank of India’s recent efforts to prop up the rupee will succeed. However, this may be a good thing, as India would benefit from a more competitive currency. 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Safe haven demand pushes gilt yields to record lows Long-run UK government bond yields have fallen to their lowest levels since records began in 1703 due to a further increase in global demand for safe-haven assets. This increase in demand has more... 11th May 2012 · 1 min read
