Emerging Europe Economics Update Rally in Hungarian markets has weak foundations Signs that Hungary’s government is softening its stance on the precise form of financing assistance it is negotiating with the IMF is clearly good news. But there are still plenty of stumbling blocks... 30th July 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update An end to renminbi appreciation? The renminbi’s rise against the dollar stalled at the beginning of 2012 and the currency has fallen back in the last few weeks. The scale of depreciation to date is small – little more than 1% since... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) The latest monetary data provide no indication that the ECB’s earlier liquidity measures are prompting banks to lend more to the wider economy. 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Threat of FX intervention building Japan’s merchandise trade figures, released today, showed a reduction in the seasonally-adjusted deficit in June, but the country remains firmly on course to end the year in the red. At the same time... 25th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How large a devaluation do the peripheral economies need? We think that some of the peripheral euro-zone economies may need their real exchange rates to fall by as much as 40% to regain competitiveness and kick start a period of export driven growth... 25th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Weaker currency won't save the euro-zone While the depreciation of the euro exchange rate is a helpful development for the euro-zone economy, suggestions that it alone can save the currency union look very hopeful. 25th July 2012 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Could Finland be the catalyst for a euro-zone break up? Finland’s continued hardline stance on the provision of support to the peripheral economies increases the risk that the euro-zone will not implement the measures needed to maintain the existing... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Could Finland be the catalyst for a euro-zone break up? Finland’s continued hardline stance on the provision of support to the peripheral economies increases the risk that the euro-zone will not implement the measures needed to maintain the existing... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Recovery on hold as economy continues to slow The Japanese economy continued to slow throughout the second quarter and businesses expect only an anaemic recovery in Q3. The economy remains reliant on government support, with reconstruction... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Labour market health belies talk of hard landing China’s economy is growing at one of the slowest rates in years but the labour market is showing few signs of strain. Migrant wages were up 13% y/y last quarter. There are still more jobs being... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the weaker euro rescue Ireland? Ireland’s extraordinarily open economy and strong trade links outside the euro-zone mean that it stands to gain more than other peripheral economies from the depreciation of the euro. But the currency... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus How would a euro-zone break-up affect Japan? If the euro-zone suffers from some form of break-up, as we expect, Japan could feel the effects through three channels: its trade links with the region, the exposure of its banking system and the... 17th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Weaker currency won’t bail out the euro-zone The drop in the euro exchange rate to its most competitive trade-weighted level in over nine years might appear to improve the euro-zone’s growth prospects and reduce the need for the uncompetitive... 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Gilt yields stay low as QE3 begins UK government bond yields and equity prices have diverged over the last month. The Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC’s) decision to resume quantitative easing (QE) appears to explain their decoupling... 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine: financing risks cloud the outlook With the temporary boost to consumer spending from the Euro 2012 Football Championship now over, Ukraine has to get back to reality. Significant external financing needs continue to cast a long shadow... 10th July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Little respite in sight for the euro The euro’s slide against the dollar is unlikely to end any time soon. Admittedly, the exchange rate is already at a two year low. But an escalation of the euro-zone crisis and a deep recession should... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
