Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The unusual exchange rate pass-through The muted rise in import prices over the past year despite the near-15% fall in the Australian dollar suggests that the weaker dollar won’t boost underlying inflation by as much as the Reserve Bank of... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor How vulnerable are US equities to tighter Fed policy? Some see tighter monetary policy as the biggest threat to the US stock market. But its onset did not have a major effect during the last three major Fed tightening cycles. What’s more, the fact that... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update How low could gold go? In an earlier Precious Metals Update, “Quantifying the downside – and upside – for gold” (13 th March), we suggested that the gold price could fall as low as $850 per ounce in a worst case scenario... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How will Czech policymakers respond to the rising koruna? The strength of the Czech koruna has raised concerns at the National Bank about a fresh slowdown in inflation and, in the first instance, we think the MPC will try to ease pressure on the currency by... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Heading towards 2% The 0.25% reduction in interest rates, to 3.00% from 3.25%, announced by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand today is the second in a series of cuts that we think could take interest rates all the way... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Greece’s bailout bad for the euro? The recent decline in the euro suggests that the markets see the new Greek bailout plan as less favourable for the single currency than a swift Grexit. But the driving force on the euro over the next... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank not backtracking on ruble free float Recent concerns that Russia’s central bank is abandoning the ruble free float seem overdone. While policymakers will undoubtedly keep a close eye on the ruble and intervene on the FX market in order... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Grexit or not – euro-zone equities should shine We expect the US FOMC to tighten policy faster and further than most envisage and think this will drive both the dollar and US Treasury yields higher. By contrast, we expect the yields of governments... 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: Not out of the woods yet The rapid appreciation of the cedi over the past month is a positive sign, but it should not be taken to mean that Ghana has successfully resolved its economic problems. The country’s economy remains... 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold to recover when higher US interest rates priced in We think that sentiment towards gold is now excessively negative. Nonetheless, given the difficulty in valuing an asset that pays no income and the importance of safe-haven demand, which is also... 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: the costs and benefits of a weaker peso The drop in the peso to a record low against the dollar in recent weeks has rekindled concerns about what impact this will have on Mexico’s economy. In practice, however, the economics of currency... 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update China’s gold accumulation has further to go Today’s confirmation that China has added to its official holdings of gold since 2009 is not necessarily bullish for prices. This is buying that has already taken place and the increase was (arguably)... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Labour market performance after devaluations: lessons for Greece? Real wages have typically fallen sharply after a major currency crisis and devaluation but have then begun recovering within a couple of years. The pace at which they have picked up has varied... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Growth to remain sluggish over medium term We expect Japan’s GDP growth rate to average under 1% over coming years, too slow for the Bank of Japan to take its foot off the monetary pedal any time soon. For financial markets, this is likely to... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Solving Australia’s latest confidence conundrum Some simple but effective analysis proves that pretty much all of the recent rise in Australian business confidence relative to consumer confidence can be explained by the recent weakening in the... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the Aussie, Kiwi and Loonie? The dollars of Australia, New Zealand and Canada have been three of the worst-performing major currencies so far this year. Despite the fact that they have already fallen a long way, we expect them to... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
