Latin America Economics Update Flávio’s strong election showing to boost Brazil’s markets Flávio Bolsonaro’s better-than-expected performance in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election is likely to boost the real and equities later today, perhaps by 3-5%, and lead to a drop in... 5th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly So long super peso, Brazil votes, BanRep’s last hike The sharp fall in the Mexican peso this week brought an abrupt end to its recent period of strength and makes us more confident that the next move in interest rates will be a hike. Elsewhere, a strong... 2nd October 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (September 2026) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The recent soft batch of activity data across many parts of Latin America is... 29th September 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Tight EM credit spreads mask lingering fiscal risks Measures of EM fiscal risk premia are very low, which partly reflects genuine policy improvements in some high-risk economies. But a few countries such as Mozambique and Tunisia still face the risk of... 29th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update How will Brazil’s markets respond to the election? The experience from Brazil’s 2018 and 2022 elections is that a victory for Flávio Bolsonaro would support equities (a boost of 10-20% seems plausible) and pull local currency bond yields down sharply... 28th September 2026 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly BanRep to hike, Mexican growth, Brazil’s election race The recent global bond market sell-off and rise in risk premia on Colombian assets is likely to shift BanRep's board in a more hawkish direction at next Wednesday's meeting. We now expect the central... 25th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s next government faces a fiscal reckoning Brazil’s next government will inherit a fiscal position that requires fiscal tightening to the tune of 3.0% of GDP to stabilise the public debt ratio. A Bolsonaro victory would offer a path towards... 22nd September 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Central banks diverge, Milei bets on taming inflation The Brazilian central bank’s statement at this week’s meeting left the door open for further interest rate cuts and, taken together with the worsening growth outlook, we’ve pencilled in a 25bp... 18th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil’s growth boom has run out of road The cyclical factors that drove Brazil’s strong post-pandemic growth have now been exhausted, and we think there will be a much sharper slowdown than most expect over the coming years. GDP growth is... 17th September 2026 · 15 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Sep. 2026) Brazil’s central bank (BCB) delivered another 25bp interest rate cut today, to 13.75%, but the absence of hawkish surprises challenges the consensus view that today’s meeting would deliver the last... 16th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico, AI supply chains & fiscal slippage Data released over the past week provide growing evidence that Mexico’s industrial sector is benefiting from integration into AI supply chains. But this is being offset by weakness in the rest of the... 11th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Aug. 2026) The slightly larger-than-expected fall in Brazilian inflation to 4.2% y/y in August was driven by a temporary drop in household energy prices. But even so, it keeps the door open for the central bank... 11th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Stuck in the slow lane Tight fiscal stances, deteriorating terms of trade and weakening labour markets mean that Latin American economies will continue to struggle and we think regional growth will come in below 2% in the... 10th September 2026 · 21 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s election: the state of play one month out Brazil’s presidential election race has tightened sharply, with polls now pointing to a close run-off between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. The candidates offer markedly different economic and foreign... 3rd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil GDP (Q2 2026) The slowdown in Q2 GDP growth in Brazil, to 0.5% q/q, is likely to be followed by a softer second half of the year and we think the door remains open for another 25bp interest rate cut later this... 1st September 2026 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico & the US-Canada trade war, Brazil’s slowdown The recent US-Canada trade talks that fell apart abruptly offer hints that Mexico might be able to secure concessions on auto and steel. And the US’s demands for a say on Canada’s external trade... 28th August 2026 · 5 mins read
