Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Nov. 2026) The decision by the National Bank of Poland to leave the policy rate at 3.75% is likely to be followed by large upwards revisions to inflation projections in the post-meeting statement due later today... 4th November 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Political deadlock in Israel, CEE tightening in focus Israel’s election this week delivered no clear winner. While political uncertainty won’t have much bearing on the country’s security strategy or near-term economic outlook, it makes it less likely... 30th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech & Hungary GDP (Q3) & Poland CPI (Oct.) The preliminary Q3 GDP figures out of Czechia and Hungary were on the disappointing side, although we expect growth in both economies to accelerate in the coming quarters. The Czech figure still... 30th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s budget, spillover risks from France Hungary’s 2027 budget delivered a positive surprise for investors, although we harbour doubts about whether the government can meet the fiscal criteria for euro adoption by 2030. Elsewhere, the spike... 23rd October 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (October 2026) Emerging Europe has weathered the energy shock well and we expect regional growth to strengthen in 2027. We remain upbeat on growth in Poland and Czechia, but more cautious than the consensus on... 22nd October 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will higher bond yields shape EM fiscal risks? EM public finances have become more vulnerable to higher interest rates in recent years. Some major EMs with underlying fiscal vulnerabilities – including Brazil, South Africa and Hungary – have... 19th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia sanctions shift, Polish core inflation softens The US seems to be moving towards (additional) sanctions relief for Russia, but the macroeconomic consequences are likely to be limited without a rollback of European sanctions (which seems much less... 16th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Glapinski holding out … but rate hikes coming soon Governor Glapinski’s post-meeting press conference this week shifted in a more hawkish direction and we now think that some modest tightening of monetary policy (50bp in total) will be delivered in... 9th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Oct. 2026) 7th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: pressure to hike rates will continue to build The reintroduction of fuel price caps in Poland has eased immediate pressure on policymakers to hike interest rates, which had looked like a close call for the November rate setting meeting. Given the... 6th October 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s fiscal tightening, Romania under pressure The details of Russia’s 2027 budget point towards fiscal austerity, but it’s hard to view this as credible given spending pressures, particularly for the military. So there’s little reason to expect a... 2nd October 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Surveys point to robust Q3 in Central Europe The survey data for Central Europe published this week point to slightly weaker activity in September than in July or August, but it still looks like regional GDP growth over Q3 as a whole was around... 1st October 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Flash CPI (Sep. 2026) The sharp rise in headline inflation in Poland to 4.0% y/y this month, from 3.4% y/y in August, was driven by food and energy. As a result, we don’t think the MPC will shift towards rate hikes at its... 30th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Tight EM credit spreads mask lingering fiscal risks Measures of EM fiscal risk premia are very low, which partly reflects genuine policy improvements in some high-risk economies. But a few countries such as Mozambique and Tunisia still face the risk of... 29th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary's new inflation target, Romania's fiscal mess The Hungarian central bank’s announcement of a new, lower inflation target this week puts the country one step further along the path to euro adoption. But arguably the bigger challenge in achieving... 25th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (September 2026) Emerging Europe has weathered the energy shock well so far and we expect regional GDP growth to strengthen in 2027. We remain upbeat on growth in Poland and Czechia, but more cautious than the... 23rd September 2026 · 0 mins read
