US Rapid Response US ADP Employment Report (Oct. 2025) The 42,000 rebound in ADP private employment in October lends support to the view that firms are resuming hiring now they have more clarity on trade and immigration policy. That said, the usual caveat... 5th November 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus What’s driving Australia’s productivity slump? The main factors behind the ongoing weakness in productivity are the demise of the country’s mining sector, a dearth of business investment and a post-pandemic surge in net migration. The latter has... 5th November 2025 · 13 mins read
Canada Economics Update Budget big but not “generational” The 2025 Budget leaves the federal deficit roughly double its current size out till the end of the decade, but it will still average just 2.5% of GDP, implying the new measures hardly constitute the... 4th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q3 2025) The tepid Q3 jobs report should ensure that the RBNZ cuts rates by another 25bp at its meeting on 26 th November. However, given signs that the labour market is bottoming out, we suspect that this cut... 4th November 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update CE UK Wage Indicator suggests pay growth is stuck at 5% Our CE UK Wage Indicator extracts the overall signal from a range of measures of wage growth and suggests that while pay growth probably isn’t rising as fast as the official data suggest, it isn’t... 4th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will cut rates to 3.1% by end-2026 When the RBA left policy settings unchanged at its meeting today, it struck a rather even-handed tone on the risks to its outlook. Although an extended pause appears likely given the ongoing strength... 4th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Nov. 2025) When the Reserve Bank of Australia left policy settings unchanged at its meeting today, it remained even-handed about the risks to its outlook. Although an extended pause appears likely, we still... 4th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: The Autumn Budget – What’s next for the economy and markets? 26th November 2025, 3:00PM GMT Our economists hosted this fast focused briefing shortly after Rachel Reeves’ statement to the House of Commons, to discuss what the Budget means for the economy, housing and markets,
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct. 2025) The small decline in the ISM Manufacturing Index in October is not a huge concern, as it was entirely driven by the volatile production component, while new orders and employment both inched higher... 3rd November 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Support for the auto sector must shift up a gear Ottawa will need to take evasive action to stem the gradual exodus of US manufacturers from the auto sector. While counter-tariffs and quota reductions will help retain production if US tariffs stay... 3rd November 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) Recent developments reinforce the divergent outlooks for the Antipodean economies. The RBA has cut rates by just 75bp so far. Given the relative resilience of the Australian economy and ongoing signs... 3rd November 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Rapid housing rebound will keep RBA on the sidelines Australia’s housing rally showed no signs of slowing in October. Given the RBA’s ongoing concerns about shelter inflation, the data reinforce our view that policy easing is unlikely to be on the... 3rd November 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly Household Spending Indicator (Sep. 25) Notwithstanding the slowdown in household spending last quarter, the RBA will almost certainly leave rates on hold at its meeting tomorrow. We don't expect rate cuts to be on the agenda before the... 3rd November 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the mixed reaction to this week’s big-tech results The mixed reaction to this week’s news from some of the US hyperscalers may reflect growing concern about the cost of the AI arms race. But our forecast is that the big-tech sectors will fuel more... 31st October 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Focus shifts from monetary to fiscal policy Despite the hawkish messaging from the Bank of Canada alongside its cut this week, we suspect it will be forced to resume lowering interest rates next year. For now, the attention shifts to fiscal... 31st October 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Chancellor's second Budget to be about as big as her first Reports that the Chancellor will leave herself with more headroom and that the Office for Budget Responsibility will downgrade its productivity forecasts by more than we were anticipating suggest the... 31st October 2025 · 4 mins read
