The increase in existing home sales in November, despite rising mortgage rates and weakening mortgage applications the month before, points to stronger demand from cash buyers, possibly driven by investors as election uncertainty faded. While this adds some upside risk to our forecast of a muted recovery in transactions next year, the 20bp jump in the 30-year mortgage rate to 7.13% serves as a good reminder for why we expect homebuying activity to remain depressed.
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