Which sector would be hit hardest in a deeper recession?

Our current view is that we see a mild recession in H1 2023, but if we were to see a more substantial drop in GDP, we think the extra downside impact would be felt most in the apartment sector. Indeed, if GDP were to fall by an additional 1% peak-to-trough more than our current minus 0.4% forecast, we think rent growth in the sector could be 3%-pts lower across the 2023-24 period.

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