The latest IPF Consensus Survey showed a modest upgrade to forecasts for total returns in 2023, driven by an uplift to the capital value view. That looks to reflect the larger-than-expected fall in capital values in 2022, which means less of an adjustment is needed this year. Our rental view remains more pessimistic than the consensus, but despite that we see total returns of 6.3% p.a. from 2023-27 compared to the consensus view of 5.6% p.a., mainly due to a more optimistic view of the retail sector.
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