OPEC minus, US blockade

The surprise announcement that the UAE will be leaving OPEC+ points to a world in which global oil supplies are likely to be higher and prices lower over the medium term (and once the Strait of Hormuz re-opens). The UAE is well placed to face lower oil prices; some other Gulf states – notably Saudi Arabia – aren’t. But with Iran-US talks at an impasse, it looks increasingly likely that the Strait won't re-open quickly. The US is now focused on squeezing Iran’s economy by blocking its oil exports, cutting off a key financial lifeline. That will keep Iran’s economy depressed unless Tehran makes concessions.