Latin America is running into a growing set of headwinds, from the global recession to lower commodity prices to tight policy at home. We expect recessions in Chile and Argentina, and our growth forecasts across most of the region for 2022-23 are below the consensus. Inflation in the region has peaked and monetary tightening cycles are now at (or near) an end. Even so, interest rates will stay higher for longer than most expect. In the meantime, fiscal concerns are likely to build, particularly in Brazil and Colombia.
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