Who is most exposed to an AI earnings bust?

An AI earnings bust need not be synonymous with a macroeconomic bust. Some scenarios – such as falling AI prices or higher input costs – would mainly redistribute income between AI producers and users, creating winners as well as losers. Only weaker AI demand would deliver a clear negative shock to global activity, hitting the economies and sectors that have benefited most from the AI boom. This Update examines which economies and sectors are most exposed under each scenario.