At long last, OPEC+ outlined a plan on Sunday for when and how members would unwind the large production curbs currently in place. We assume that this plan is followed through and that output gradually increases from October, pushing the crude market into a small surplus by the end of next year. Accordingly, we are sticking to our forecast for the Brent oil price to fall to $70 per barrel by Q4 2025.
In view of the wider interest, we are sending this Energy Update to clients of our Middle East & North Africa service.
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